Friday July 6th 2006

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

RUN OF THE DAY: from that same event, going with SPEEDY KING who was 1^st-up from over a year off, sat 6-horses off the outside rail and ran on hard up the centre with no horse to trail/chase… does have plenty of natural ability, just hope he can stand a full preparation…

No knock on the winner. The super-honest STRAIGHT LEGS. RA SUN was held-up a touch passing the 300m but it didn’t cost him the race. BOLD KEL hit the line ok for easier… does try hard. (Ra Sun and Speedy King shared honours for fastest final-600m sectional here).

Race 3 saw DR NIPANDTUCK continue his great form, travelled up so sweetly behind the lead, got up inside leader and was too good… gave some real promising horses weight, and a beating! HUYPIRCART should not be sacked though, did like him finding the line late, just wants a shade further I feel. SALIENTE led in 49.80 (1^st-800m) so didn’t ‘fly’ along… think he can make a nice horse if he can learn to relax in the lead… always looks to be going too keenly? SAARJUN came wide with trail from the 700m and did hit the line (had fastest final-400m split). KNOCKOUT (ran on), SAMETONE (ditto) and ALIGN OF CHAUCER (back, stayed on inside rail – probably worst ground – had fastest final-200m split) were all noteworthy. Overall time was 1:42.94 for the 1700m.

Race 5over 2000m saw them strung out. All the run-ons were to the fore at the finish with EL PEREZ finishing very strongly the last 200m. Ran good time 2:02.88 too. FIELD HUNTER continues to race well, tracked wide with trail here. BLUTIGEROO was ridden confidently, peeled 3-wide from inside the 700m and swept to the lead early in swooper’s race. Ran well ! ENCOSTA LEGEND found the line when clear and BEACH D’OR tried very hard on-pace.

Race 6 (winter championship heat) was won by CHITABE who swept down the centre and was impressive… he is not just a ‘wetty’. Beat OUR APACHE who is smart, was only 2^nd-up here and did like his fight when headed…. Ready to win you’d think. HILLSTON EXCHANGE got up on the inside (probably not 100% best ground) and fought hard with FINLAYSON also running well… hitting the line. In order final-400/200m splits home (Chitabe, Our Apache, Finlayson, Gold wells)… They ran fast time here 1:22.96 off a 49.01 1^st-800m

Race 7, also over 1400m, for the 3yo’s was won by SPEEDY ROSSA who travelled up to the lead and shot away… loves Flemington! Leaders didn’t go hard here, 50.34 1^st-800m. MAYBE BETTER (had support) was 1^st-up from a long spell, got into the clear and stretched out very nicely. Very good return! (had fastest final 200m sectional)… A bit more speed on would have helped… These two beat the third horse quite easily and ran 1:23.83.

Of the others: MARJOUR (led, over-raced a touch/ spell ?), STRADDLE (home ok behind Maybe Better, touch easier please), EXCLUSIVITY (slow out, came home very nicely Vs tempo – second-fastest splits home here and fitter) and FLYING LANGFUHR (last, home very hard Vs tempo and actually recorded the fastest final-400m sectional and was virtually equal final 200m split with Maybe Better).

In the last CAPTIOUS was given a gun-run, travelled up strongly and broke right away… Ran 1:42.67 for the 1700m (touch faster than 3yos earlier in day) off a 49.68 1^st-800m. MISS LATAR is flying and hit the line hard despite giving up her trail and scouting wide before the home turn. IRISH NOBLE ran on well and SHE LAGO improved sharply back on a dry track, good effort as she was closest to inside rail when running on. ASCANA made nice late ground and obviously much fitter for that.

In Sydney racing was at ROSEHILL on a Slow track, rail was True. Track played very well save for hard up on inside rail which most avoided.

RUN OF THE DAY: Close between WALK ALONE and POSTCODE but going with the Mare WALK ALONE as juts think she has more upside… She drew wide and got back on Saturday (4^th-last turning) and absolutely launched late. At all her previous runs she’d sat on the pace (or led)… think she will be winning her next assignment!

Other good runs in Race 7: Never knock winners but KELTIC FLASH did have a dream run (x 2)… TE DEUM had a bit of trouble getting clear turning and did close strongly; DOUBLE DARE ran a beauty, had no luck/run to the 250m but rocketed late… follow him. They ran 1:11.63 for the 1200m off a solid 34.92 1^st-600m.

Back to Race 1 and the pace looked ok early with TYPHOON ZED leading, he did get very tired very late at the end of 1200m. KOOKA won the event and did like the last 100m… very strong late! SOMETHING ANYTHING showed courage, didn’t get enough room most of the home straight and kept giving. MULAMAN made up very nice ground late as did SAGWALA who swung wide turning. (Mulaman and Something Anything shared honours for fastest final-400m split – Kooka had fastest final 200m). Overall time was 1:12.54

Race 2 and HIPPONA came out 3-wide before the 600m, came 4-wide turning and it was a good win… well bred. Has upside. Beat CONTRAST who did come hard late. Time was 1:31.23 for the 1500m… a couple were luckless (see forgive file).

CALIDAN won the third at amazing odds ($55 in Syd) and sat 4-deep mostly… excellent win! Ran 1:11.94 for 1200m so wasn’t far behind Keltic Flash/Walk Alone on times the 3yo. BENTLEY ESS loomed to win at the 100m, ran well and LAYLIA came home very well from a mile back turning (fastest final 400m). CANNON settled last, came widest and ran on hard. (fastest final 200m). ONION was typical and SUMMERSAULT passed a few…

Race 4 saw MYSTERY CITY sit outside the lead, get away 250m, and hold on. POSTCODE was enormous in running second after sitting 3 & 4 wide, no cover, the trip and really attacking the line. GYPSY HONOUR looks ready to win also after running on strongly down the centre. BLUE PATRIARCH ran on hard Vs tempo (recorded fastest final 400/200m) and PRINCE OF MIDNIGHT also found the line with plenty against… had 2^nd-fastest last 400m in fact… add him to ‘forgive file’. Interestingly they ran almost 1 full second slower than HIPPONA in Race 2 for the 1500m.

Race 5 and TUAREG led, was well-rated, and won. Does know how to disappoint though… CINCINNATI GAL ran on, had her chance though you’d say (settled close enough). LOOKOUT worked home very well Vs slow pace, had fastest final 200m, equal, with PEKALAN (also beaten by tempo). COALMINER, MEGABUCKS and OPAL CHIP were all ok Vs tempo.

BRAVE LANCER was a mile too good in Race 6. Joined in 4-wide before the turn and is back at his top now. VERB made his run inside the winner, beaten fair-and-square. Others are plodders with TAKEN AT THE FLOOD the exception… but it is spell time for him surely! They ran 2:35.52 for the 2400m trip.

In the last the super-honest WITH A CHANCE got a split 1-off the inside and won well. Pace was on here with a 47.88 1^st-800m (and Serkelt charging out by 6L). MR UBIQUITOUS might have picked the wrong race to settle closer but he just never wins! HIT THE ROAD had his chance, still had fastest closing sectionals, was only 2^nd-up.. he ran well and ROVING OWL ran on nicely (did swing wide turning, others got runs through). LYN’S MONEY and TWANGED returned ok sectionals. Time was 1:24.42 for the 1400m which was a good gallop (slow track).

THE FORGIVE FILE:

ELLA LA ROSSA (wide, no cover), NENA CANDIDA (back, then widest), CURBYOURENTHUSIASM (co-led 3-wide, was still best on-pacer… ran well), UPSIZED (needs dry), GAZE ON (upside/ down), GIVE WAY (wide), BIG HENRY (took off 800m), THE JACKAL (never clear!), NEAT WORK (very wide), TIPPU TIP (tbtbt), MR ARISTOS (missed kick, forward, wide) and BUTTEN SHAW (too wet).

PLEASE NOTE:

All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for SLOW track, it’s a Slow-6 now (Thurs night) and a few showers are forecast. Rail is out 10M and doubt there will be any leader bias. Expecting outside rail will be the go in Race 7 (up straight).

In Sydney racing is at the KENSINGTON track and all ratings are for SLOW track. The rail is True. At the last meeting here (17^Th May) it was a Slow surface and the track played well.

BET OF THE DAY:

KENSINGTON – Race 5 No.2 – LANG – This promising gelding from the David Payne stable put in a real eye-catcher when ‘run of the day’ last start at Randwick. He was held-up badly into the straight and couldn’t get going whilst winner, BEAU COVET, was sprinting down the outside. In fact, LANG very nearly fell at the 300m mark trying to extricate himself from traffic. When he got clear, he absolutely flew home in what was an excellent run! He manages to get into this race 2kg below the limit (51kg) after the claim for Tye Angland whilst his main danger (and early favourite) BEAU COVET is up there on 58.5kg. I suspect LANG will be even better for his last-start effort as it was his first crack at 1800m and he just loves the give in the track. Will be charging home and early quote has him $5.50 !

FLEMINGTON – Race 8 No.3 – MALOOSE – This daughter of Redoute’s Choice is showing considerable promise and the turn of foot she showed to win at Sandown recently is one reserved for horses well above average. When you consider that it was only start no.3, you can see why the Robbie Griffiths stable are pretty excited about her future! For the best pointer of her chances today, go back two runs, and she ran fourth to SPEEDY ROSSA (since won again, and beat the very smart Maybe Better), on that occasion MALOOSE came from midfield and hooked to the outside before making up a stack of ground in the run home. What made the effort more meritorious was the fact that nothing was really making much ground down the outside at Flemington that day and, she was having only start no.2… She meets SPEEDY ROSSA better at the weights now, she is actually in below the minimum (after claim) and has been working in terrific fashion for this. From gate 3, given natural improvement, expect her to run very, very well here. Early quote $8 is way overs too…

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY:

RANDWICK – Race 7 No.6 – NOREIL – He produced a big finish to win 1^st-up at this track displaying a nice turn of foot before losing no admirers 2^nd-up at Randwick when 3 & 4 wide and sent forward before the home and just failed to finish off after such a tough run. NOREIL then had a month between runs and stepped out to 1600m and just couldn’t ‘ping’ when asked but was spotted hitting the line very nicely late. That run tops him off for this and the 1800m trip looks right up his alley, he gets a nice weight-pull off the ‘toppy’ Impatient Star (who surely must be at the end of his campaign soon?) and he is proven on this track which is very important. Danny Nikolic takes the ride from gate 2 and early markets have him around $6 which is a couple of points above his rated price and as such, he represents terrific value!

BEST PLACE BET OF THE DAY:

FLEMINGTON – Race 5 No.11 – GOLD ATTIRE – Just forget he went around last start at Sandown (Hillside) as he got back on a day when all on-pacers were winning and was then further thwarted by a very slow speed. Not only that, he copped a check 300m out when trying to make ground before getting to the outside and still managing the 3^rd-fastest last 200m of the race… the run was good! At his previous outing (here) he swept to the lead and looked all over a winner before the fitter Tasman Trader came along and rolled him, GOLD ATTIRE was only 3^rd-up there at 2550m and that run would have topped him off. He loves rain-affected tracks, he saves his very best for Flemington and he is weighted to win. Our track spies tell us he is working in tremendous fashion for this assignment and at his early quote of $13, he represents great each-way value!

FLEMINGTON – Race 6 No.15 – FINLAYSON – Was only racing 3^rd-up when a fast-finishing fourth in the heat of the Winter Championships here last Saturday and was spotted hitting the line very strongly through along the inside. Only CHITABE recorded a faster final-600m split there and I think he is even better served at the 1600m trip with that extra fitness. In fact, the last time FINLAYSON ran at this track/trip he was a very impressive winner coming from 2^nd-last and swallowing up his rivals on a Dead rated track. This race has caused many a boilover in recent history and this guy just might be worth a ticket at the $31 quoted early on sportsbet…

TOP RATED RUNNERS:

FLEMINGTON

Race 1 – B R SMITH Hurdle – 3060m

1. 3 – SOPRATUTTO –
2. 4 – GUNZA MIGILLA –
3. 7 – SOME ARE BENT –
4. 8 – INDICATES – (prefers wet)
5. 2 – SIR PENTIRE – (prefers dry)

Race 2 – Open 2yo Hcp – 1410m

1. 10 – READY FOR LUCK – Tough race and looking for value. Thought his run was every bit as good as Spend A Dime at MV when asked to make his run from behind, and wider than, the winner and did like the way he got home. Suspect that is the key form here and the winner (Dance On Board) may just be very smart! 3^rd-up now and 1400m ideal with added fitness. $13 early !?!?
2. 1 – SPEND A DIME – Box-seated behind Dance On Board, got into some traffic snarls before getting clear and attacking the line! Looks a horse desperate for 1400m and that was only start no.2 so has significant upside…
3. 7 – MOONLOUSHE – Missed the kick on debut in what was very much a on-pace dominated affair (1,2 all the way) and that form did stand-up to this level (Renmin Road was third to Dance On Board after missing kick). This guy returned good sectionals there, he will enjoy 1400m and has a heap of upside… can certainly win!
4. 14 – HINDU LION – Was spotted hitting the line hard, very late in Dance On Board race (at $101) over the 1200m and is desperate for 1400m also. Was only 4L off them at the finish and is probably the best roughie here!?
5. 3 – EXALATION – Ran well in very strong form-race on debut before too good for Sweet Valentina last start and she had been competitive in black-type races!

1. 1 – EVILWEB – Is the obvious after rattling home after Examination 2-back whilst carting 57.5kg against the boys. Meets winner 4kg better now. Easiest of wins last start in mid-week company… clear top pick!
2. 2 – BRILLIANT LAD – Handy horse. Top effort 1^st-up with almost 60kg before rolling the smart Bel Danoro last start and did attack the line there. Beat Examination home one day at MV and meets him .5kg better now.
3. 4 – EXAMINATION – Broke maiden with strong win at massive odds this track/trip last start. Only other straight run was good also, that looks the key to him. Relative weights against this time…
4. 7 – APPLE LOAD – Good win over Gone Critical 1^st-up (and they spaced the rest) before very competitive with Brilliant Lad/ Bel Danoro last start. Fitter, has claims.

1. 2 – MANZEAL –
2. 8 – PERSONAL DRUM –
3. 1 – BUSBY GLENN
4. 5 – SISSANO –
5. 7 – LAUGHING IN DUBAI –

Race 5 – Hcp – 2540m

1. 11 – GOLD ATTIRE – reasons outlined
2. 5 – EL PEREZ – Very impressive win last week and extra distance won’t be a problem as his last 200m was so strong there! Ran fast time there and beat good in-form horses. The last time he backed-up within 1 week he won by 6 Lengths!!! The danger!
3. 6 – FIELD HUNTER – Tracked wide (with trail) last time before looming to win but nailed by El Perez. Actually matched his final 400m sectional there and gets 1.5kg adv. this time. No reason to doubt at the trip but isn’t proven yet.
4. 10 – TASMAN TRADER – Ran down Gold Attire 2-back before must forgive run last time when back Vs slow pace/ Leader’s track. Likes Flem/ give in track and drawn beautifully… competitive.
5. 1 – UMBULA – Forgive last week when in the wrong part of the track (inside rail) and track too hard anyway. Back to wet and out to trip suits but has big weight and leader’s pattern may have flattered the start before? Needs luck from 17… goes in multi’s
6. 18 – IRISH DARLING – include if gets a run at massive odds.

1. 15 – FINLAYSON – reasons outlined
2. 2 – CHITABE – Ultra-impressive last time displaying really good speed (fast sectionals) at the end of 1400m. No reason to doubt at 1600m and handles all conditions. Drawn ideally. No precedent for quick back-up but stable never do the wrong thing by their horses!
3. 3 – OUR APACHE – Drawn 17 hurts but did love the fight he showed when headed by Chitabe last week and that was only 2^ndup for Freedman stable. Record at 1500m is very good and only 1600m run he ran super in (strong) Scone Cup. Peak now! Can win with luck!
4. 9 – HADDLE MCDADDLE – Probably should have won at Geelong 2-back before finding the track a little too firm last time (that was his first ‘miss’ from finishing 1,2 at 1600m). Expecting improvement back to wet ground at his pet distance.
5. 7 – ALTO ADIGE – Brilliant 1^st-up at Sale winning by 4L before top win (again) at Wangaratta when came from well off the pace. Peaks here 3^rd-up and loves 1600m. has claims.
6. 16 – LIFE’S A BOUNTY – 1600m specialist beaten by slow pace and the handicapper last start. Second to Captious before that now looks great form. Just needs to gain a start!?

Race 7 – Open Hcp – 1200m

1. 7 – PRETTY PENNY – Very impressive at Bendigo coming from off the pace and winning easily. That followed ‘run of the race’ at MV when slow out and kept coming in leader-dominated affair. First two there Paris Zero/ Illusionist so form outstanding. Drawing 11 ideal and latest straight run good behind Miss Andretti.
2. 2 - RA SUN – Did find the line last start behind Straight Legs (1000m) and they ran fast time! Out to 1200m where form is better than stats show and raced last time like he was desperate for the trip… we shall see.
3. 9 – PARIS ZERO – Beat Pretty Penny 3-back carting 57kg and beat all-bar the smart Illusionist last start. Good run last start here/trip behind Miss Andretti when not quite fit enough and has won up the straight… very honest.
4. 12 - COFFEESHOPRUMOURS – Just forget he went around 1^stup at MV when shuffled back, checked, and never clear. Was in the market there. Unproven straight but does like give in the track. Include in everything.
5. 6 – STEPTOE – Won a race this track/trip on Melb Cup day beating the then flying Air Cooled. Can run fast times but is unproven in wet so that is the query…

1. 3 – MALOOSE – reasons outlined
2. 6 – SHE’S COMMANDING – Came from well back, weaved through and made up very good ground behind Speedy Rossa 2-back before heading to Sydney and again working home very nicely behind Tin Pan. That form is starting to shape ok and in with no weight (relatively well) after the claim. Winning chance!
3. 1 – SPEEDY ROSSA – Big win here 2-back when aided by lead-bias but then repeated the dose last start despite sitting off the pace (was slow pace) and rolled a handy one in Maybe Better (who has fancied). Loves it here/trip… a must.
4. 2 – DUEL COMMAND – Every chance behind Speedy Rossa 2-back then forget ran at MV last start on inside rail at 1600m. Competitive back to 1400m.
5. 5 – LUMINARY – Finally found a dry track at Ballarat but was beaten a lip. Previous form she had no luck at all and/or stuck wet tracks. Can win if dry. Place best wet.

Race 1 – Class 3 Hcp – 1550m

1. 8 – INFERREO – Weak race this and looking for value. This mare ran home quite well (sectionals inferior to only the winner) last start at Randwick coming from last. That Jeteye form is quite good and interesting to note they ran faster time than Capanna did to win the previous race over the same trip. No weight after claim!
2. 1 – CAPANNA – Good strong win last time when breaking maiden but is a 3yo, up in weight (carries 56kg), and giving weight to older horses… never like seeing that but as stated, this is a weak race. Can win but scared ‘unders’.
3. 4 – ARTS DEGREE – Would be top pick on dry track and in very nicely after the claim for what she has achieved. No worse that just Slow I’d say?
4. 5 – RETURNOFTHEKING – Had some support at big odds last start when 3^rd-up from a spell and did find the line there. One run here was good (btn 1L) all three of her wins have been at this distance range. Peak fit now…

1. 1 – GUNFIRE MESSIAH – At his very best with give in the track. Beat Jeteye on his merits 2-back and that horse since won. Has won here too… Run well.
2. 5 – TOP OF THE TOP – Good effort 1^st-up off a long spell when got home nicely at Canterbury in what was a slowly run race. Won 2^nd-up 2 preps back and was only 3L off Leading Bid 2^nd-up last campaign. Wet no worries.
3. 2 – JETEYE – Meets toppy on same weight terms for defeat 3-back but this guys was only 2^ndup there so safe to assume fitter now for the re-match. Both Kensington track runs good and very genuine. Unleashed big run last start for good win and Brave Regent (5^th there) won mid-week. Can win!
4. 4 – CLEAN HEELS – Four wins in succession including very good win last start when a month between runs and still too strong for a couple of very much, in-form gallopers. In light after claim. Cant knock!

1. 3 – HY DREAM – Close-up behind Calidan 3-back before blinkers on and hit line hard behind The Jackal 2-back (beat Innings home there). Last run he made up very nice ground late despite racing too close to the inside (slow lanes). This is the right form! 1400m suits… top rated!
2. 6 – FILL HER UP – Did like his last 200m last start at Warwick Farm behind Mr Incredible when only 1^st-up was supported late. Meets winner 3.5kg better now and extra distance definitely suits. No weight.. good chance at some value.
3. 4 – OUR JETSETTER – Run-down by Junebug last start but that’s no disgrace as that horse rolled Walk Alone previously. They did thrash the rest last time and she’ll be fitter now. Forgive only run this track (2back) when very wide. Chance.
4. 7 – RED STAR RAIDER – Have liked her last two runs in better company… only 3L off Impatient Star/ Innings and Beau Covet last time in swooper’s race. Competitive here.
5. 1 – MR INCREDIBLE – Nice win 1^st-up from long spell with 58kg then headed but too tough last time (2^nd-up). Imagine the tempo of 1400m will suit and does have a second to Astronomia on his CV (over 1300m). Very genuine horse!

Race 4 – Open 2yo Hcp – 1300m

1. 2 – FOR ACTION – Only start no.2 when narrow second last time behind Goldlago when actually matched the winner’s final 200m split. Did hit the line like a horse desperate for 1300m. That followed debut win by panels at Scone. Well above average this guy.
2. 5 – GOD’S HAND – Did finish strongly at Canterbury behind Typhoon Zed over 1100m and better for that (debut), Runner-up there Kooka did win similar race last Saturday and 1300m ideal. Winning chance!
3. 1 – AUSPICES – Simply too good (albeit narrowly) at Rosehill over this trip although form yet to be really franked. That was only 2^ndup so assume fitter and it is Hawkes/Beadman so…. Bred to handle wetter too.
4. 3 – MISTER CELESTIAL – Dominant win on debut showing nice acceleration before a little ‘flat’ 2^nd-up behind Take Your Seat when backed as if unbeatable  but didn’t have same ping… expect that run to have improved him and he can win this also!
5. 4 – TAKE YOUR SEAT – Beat Mister Celestial last time thanks to nice inside run/ride. Relative weights against this time but don’t knock winners. Place best.

1. 2 – LANG – reasons outlined
2. 1 – BEAU COVET – Superior wet-tracker who tracked into the race and won very well last time. Gets very similar conditions here but weight scale no help. Can win but may be ‘unders’.
3. 3 – IN TOP CLASS – Looked set for victory last start but ran to outside rail which didn’t help. It was a very good run off a modest tempo and he does have a powerful finish. Back to 1800m here. Certainly competitive
4. 5 – MISS NIKKI – Ran well last start at bid odds when back, and wide (covered ground the trip) before swinging widest and running on. Was held late there but that form looks ok. Unproven 1800m but only run here was narrow third when led and fought hard over 1400m.
5. 4 – ENDEARMENT – Good effort 2-back when 3L third to Cape Breton (1800m) but couldn’t repeat next start over 2000m. Been given little let-up since indicating all may not have been well? Winning chance on Cape Breton form/run.

Race 6 – Hcp – 1100m

1. 9 – REAL STRIKE – Was off a 2-month break in the Pacesetter when came home hard right down the outside and leader’s didn’t go hard… it was a top run. In even better at the relative weights here and with added fitness he just might be the one at juicy odds? Comes back to 1100m tiny query but doesn’t need to get ‘mile’ back.
2. 3 – FUMBLE – Thought her 1^st-up run was terrific after sitting 4-wide, no cover, on the speed all the way. That proved she handles the wet ok (by snippets!) and she boasts an excellent 2^ndup record. Cant split her and Real Strike to be honest…
3. 6 – GUMNUTS – Wasn’t disgraced in Melb (Flem) last start when only 3L off (flying) winner Straight Legs in very fast time. Was close-up (1.6L) prior to that behind Vionneto (right form!) and Beadman takes over the reigns.
4. 2 – PRESENTLY – Relishes Dead tracks but any the wetter it gets beyond that, the more you can risk him winning. Going as well as ever when gets even luck. 4L off Silk And Money last start (Slow track, that horse since run super in Pacesetter) despite wide run says he can win. In with 57kg after claim is winnable weight on high minimum.
5. 1 – COLLATE – 61kg is the worry. Does fly fresh and did trial very well. 1 from 1 Dead ground but not seen worse. Stable flying… can’t leave out.

Race 7 – Class 6 Hcp – 1800m

1. 6 – NOREIL – reasons outlined
2. 7 – EASTWEST DANCER – Best run in the race last start for mine when held-up until well into the straight then really found the line. Rocketed home previous run at Rosehill at this distance. Has the right form!
3. 4 – KILCORNAN – Dead-heated last time and his run had more merit to my eye as he was asked to cover ground 4-deep before the home turn. Flopped only run here but that not conclusive.
4. 1 – IMPATIENT STAR – Been up since Moses was a boy but keeps racing well. Claim again sees him beat the handicapper and all that Innings/ Melody form is very good. Has won here on Kensington surface… he is the obvious!!!
5. 5 – PENHURST – Dead-heated with Kilcornan last start and it was a tough effort. Placed two of two on this track and will race on-pace. Likes wet! Must include if Slow or worse…

1. 7 – SILENT SONG – Wasn’t given any hope of winning last start when rider took off 800m out setting it up for stablemate Contrast who has since run very well. Beadman takes over and likely fitter for that anyway. Narrow second to Melody before that is good form.
2. 3 – PRIMA NOCTE – 1^st-up. Trialled very nicely recently behind Collate and she flies fresh! Big win 1^stup last campaign over unsuitable 1000m trip coming from well back, weaving through. Has a touch of quality about her. Definitely!
3. 4 – BELLA ARENA – 1^st-up. Produced good closing sectionals 1^stup last prep when only 2L off the winner at the finish. Likes it wet.
4. 8 – LUCIFINA – Really found the line 1^st-up and was close-up (1.5L) at Canterbury when racing 2^nd-up last prep. In very light after the claim (1.5kg below limit) and had form around some handy horses last prep (including beating home Serious Money before losing protest). Value runner!
5. 11 – LARA’S WAY – Has struggled a little on wet tracks lately but hasn’t had much luck. Latest dry track run she ran on hard behind Barberton at Hawkesbury (Saturday meeting) and she has no weight today (2kg below min.). Good roughie if not too wet…
6. 1 – SHARP AUNTY – Has an aversion to winning but has the ability! Place…

Good Luck !

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

Racing at MOONEE VALLEY last week was on a SLOW Track with the Rail True. For the first time in a looong time with a TRUE rail you could actually be on the inside rail and win, even leading was no disadvantage… just another lesson to always watch and monitor track conditions!

RUN OF THE DAY: There were some really good runs from gallopers in the market who finished just behind the place-getters on the day. Giving the nod to SPECARD from Danny O’Brien camp. He just didn’t get enough galloping room for most of the race on Saturday but was spotted hitting the line very sweetly… Gut feeling is he has plenty of upside also, and he was having his first look at a wet track… might just make a handy racehorse.

Of the others in Race 5: Winner PRESENTING cannot be knocked, filly Vs the males carrying weight… gutsy win! HOPESON couldn’t sprint when the field did but had to like him hitting the line late… wants further and GREENSPIEL had led and slipped away, gallant but is still a maiden.

Back to Race 1 for the 2yos and DANCE ON BOARD was impressive. Came from beyond midfield 3-wide (with trail) before peeling 4 & 5 wide joining in… showed nice acceleration, gee Mick Price can get a 2yo to improve sharply can’t he. Gun trainer. READY FOR LUCK ran very well here, made it’s run from behind the winner and was wider than the winner and kept closing. HINDU LION made up nice ground through on the inside without ton of luck.

Race 2 and ILLUSIONIST is flying… sat second, broke away and it was simply, a very good win. PARIS ZERO sat a little deep and chased all the way home as did DANDY KID. MARWIN GOLD found the line ok but is a good risk, winning, at this grade these days.

Race 6 saw CAPRIZZI STRIP lead all the way, he can be hard to stop on wet ground when he gets his own way and isn’t thwarted by track bias. KEHUNGA is flying, made a forward move 4-wide from inside the 600m and just kept coming. CHIAK is a good horse who just didn’t get the runs at a vital stage there on Saturday but hit the line like a coming winner. JACQUES LE NAIF made up good ground… had a bit against.

Race 7 and the pace came on from the 800m mark when SWINGING BABE took off, setting it up nicely for those off the pace. JOHNNY KNOXVILLE had a good run, was then under pressure when the mare took off but knuckled down and wanted to win. Runner-up BRAINPOWER tracked the tearaway when she took off and ran well. One of the runs of the day was MARWIN LASS who had covered ground back in the field and was spotted hitting the line hard out wide in the straight. Very good run!

In the last it was JILLIMARG at big odds who popped out 600m from home, hit the lead and held on. DAI ICHI peeled off backs and really found the line and MISS LA TAR was third, she sat 3-wide, then 4-wide, then 5-wide and kept coming… it was a top effort. By now I don’t think the inside rail was the best ground but… hmmm

MY KINDA MUSIC (1^st start, very green, lots to learn), GLASGOW JIM (wide on speed, easier please), GHOST PARTY (too bad to be true, was wide, probably wants wetter too), WILLINGANI (no luck/ held up to turn), WILDCOAST (2040m too far), CELTIC EMPIRE (checked/ hit rail), CHAKOTAY (given no hope), SWINGING BABE (ditto), RURAL LAW (led, attacked early), LIKE IT IS (prefer with sit, fence probably not best spot now) and SAINT BARBARA (drier).

In Sydney racing was at RANDWICK and it was a very HEAVY track. Thought the track itself played very well.

RUN OF THE DAY: Hard to miss the effort of LANG (Race 3) who was held up hopelessly until passing the 300m and nearly fell soon after, he got clear and rocketed home… excellent run/effort.

The pace/ pressure was on in Race 3 and the closers finished 1,2. Winner BEAU COVET was ridden well, peeled out and showed a nice turn of foot, I am convinced he is a lengths better horse on effected ground. Fourth-placed JUST DON’T ASK was a terrific run. He took the lead too soon (home corner) in a fast-run race and was the best on-pacer at then end. Plenty of merit in that! Always wary of relative times on wet tracks but they ran 1:54.49 for the 1800m here.

To Race 1 and the well-bred GOLD LAGO made it two from two. The leader (Shy Baldy) had gone very hard (stuck on well for third) and liked the way the winner knuckled down. Runner-up FOR ACTION peeled out and closed strongly… these first-three thrashed the rest of the field… Time 1:06.28/ 1100m 2yo)

Race 2 and ATHELNOTH was probably the luckiest win of the day, behind the leader, stayed inside and fell in over a couple of gallopers who covered a stack more ground. FIRE SONG was 3 & 4 wide and just missed, CONNOISSEUR got runs between and kept closing. FORESTRENO had every chance. Not much else to report…

Race 4 saw RHYTHMIC SKY lead and kick strongly, no knock on her and she is in great form. LUCIFINA came from well back, got runs through and really found the line (fastest last 400m) with BLUE LYRIC (who finished second-last) probably worth a mention for later, did have the fastest final 200m and very obviously wants further… INDIVIDUAL isn’t tough enough!

The Maiden CAPANNA won race 5 and was strong to the line, there was a little pressure up front here and interesting to note, the first-4 home did gap the rest of the field. Runner-up PETERTWONAMES made a move before the turn and did loom… GRAND TRAVERSE worked to lead, kicked 300m, grabbed late… ran nicely and OUR OVATIONS came from third-last at the 600m and hit the line hard. Petertwonames and Our Ovations recorded virtually identical final 200m splits (fastest of race) with winner, Capanna not far behind them. LEICA PLATEAU returned some ok sectionals for an easier race.

Race 6 and JETEYE unleashed a big run up the middle of the track to score from the very brave BLUMARJU who sat deep, worked to lead 700m from home and still had the audacity to kick… very good run! I think CALLER ONE is a fraud but ran ok here with both POWER SWITCH and INFERREO returning handy late sectionals and making up ground in the straight. Time: 1:27.15 for 1400m was .44 faster than Capanna’s win the previous race over the same trip.

Race 7 and MAC’S TUNE who hasn’t enjoyed much luck recently got up at big odds, almost missed the boat again as he was pocketed to the 200m before getting over heels and going home too well for VIONNETO who was terrific in defeat, made a long, wide run with plenty of weight. SILK AND MONEY is super-honest and hit the line hard here (fastest last 400m/200m) from REAL STRIKE who sailed home right down the centre, from last (second-fastest last 400/200m)… has some upside too this one!  They ran 1:12.98 for the 1200m and leaders didn’t go hard, although pressure did come in the form of a 3-way lead…

Race 8 saw a dead-heat between PENHURST (sat on leader, tough win) and KILCORNAN (moved up 4-wide before turn, tough win). ROCKING ON was held up a touch on inside but had his chance from EASTWEST DANCER who was held up into straight before really finding the line (fastest late splits, follow!)… Fifth-placed EL MEROO didn’t quite finish off at 2000m. These five were well clear of the rest.

In the last it was IMPATIENT STAR who seems like he has been up for 2 years producing his now customary big finish. The pace was on here with one leading out by 6L mid-race and that certainly suited the winner who is flying. MELODY sat off the pace on the inside, got to lead under a hold but just found one too strong. ARTISTIQUE came wide and rattled home (again) and NOREIL was an interesting run, took a stride or two to wind up but did close strongly late. DELTA EAGLE saved ground inside and came home well (needs touch easier). These ‘run-ons’ were the first-five home. THREE TENORS had ok late splits.

THE FORGIVE FILE:

ALL BLACK GOLD (too wet), WHERE’S DAD’S CASH (sat deep), NOBRAGNOW (5-wide), FLURO FEVER (wide, no cover all the way, stuck on well), NGORAGORA (did cover ground but…little weak), CHIEF HENNESY (3-wide and over-raced), FUMBLE (4-wide, then 3-wide, no cover), MUSTARD (too wet), FOR VALOUR (never got a crack) and HIGH HORSE (too wet).

TO TODAY’S SELECTIONS

All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for DEAD Track and the rail is out 6M. Not expecting any on-pace bias here but always watch/monitor.

In Sydney racing is at ROSEHILL and ratings are also for DEAD Track. Rail there is True and running on won’t be a problem you’d think.

BET OF THE DAY:

ROSEHILL – Race 8 No.4 – HIT THE ROAD – Thought his 1^stup run was outstanding when you consider he went down narrowly, flying late, despite the jock reporting he didn’t really handling the Heavy track at Randwick. This horse flies 2^ndup and loves the 1400m trip. In fact, it was only his last campaign that he ran a close-up third to MALCOLM over this trip and they broke 1:22 for the 1400m. World-class jockey Darren Beadman takes over the reigns today and with the prospect of a firmer track he does look very difficult to beat!

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY:

FLEMINGTON – Race 8 No.3 – CAPTIOUS – Top win here three runs back over this trip when showed a nice turn of foot before not being able to repeat the dose when out to 2000m (two back), came back to 1800m and the form returned with a gutsy 2L Fifth to FIELD HUNTER after covering a stack of additional ground. This looks no harder, he handles wet or dry, he has drawn beautifully and this is his distance range! Callow up, can’t see him missing each-way given even luck.

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY:

ROSEHILL – Race 7 No.8 – PELENNIUM – Ran a good race 1^stup when co-led (with pressure) and got to the centre of the track before only wilting late for 5^TH (beaten 2.5L) by VIONNETO (form franked). He then came to Rosehill 2^ndup but bumped into NATURAL DESTINY who could be anything (since won again, brilliantly, in Qld). The effort of PELENNIUM’s was outstanding when you consider he was 3-wide, no cover , all the way and was only beaten a tick over 5L (winner won by a space). Third-up now, peaking fitness wise and the prospect of a drier track are all pluses, as is Zac Purton from an inside gate (check pattern?). $17 early, way overs!

BEST PLACE BET OF THE DAY:

ROSEHILL – Race 2 No.1 – PALABIRO - Was clearly the best of the on-pacers when resumed here when forced to take the sit on tearaway leader. She flies 2^nd-up too having won 2 of 3 (was runner-up the other occasion) and she beat DOUBLOON comfortably when racing 2^ndup last prep. Claim sees her in 1.5kg better than CONTRAST this time and she can turn the tables. Safe each-way bet.

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY:

FLEMINGTON – Race 6 No.9 – HILLSTON EXCHANGE – This bloke just loves the Flemington 1400m wet or dry. Extremely courageous this track/trip three-back when worked to lead and swooper’s track and held off all bar THREEDEE who is/was flying. He then, again, did some work to lead on a swoop track and still ran third to PARMAR DAY/ BIRD DANCER before heading to Wangarratta over 1600m where he led but was attacked a long way out. This is his go, back to HQ, from gate 1 and in a race without some of the depth he has been encountering. Sportsbet early markets have him at $15 and at that quote, he is tremendous value!

TOP RATED RUNNERS:

FLEMINGTON

Race 1 – Crisp Steeplechase – 4000m

9 – DAWSON ROAD –

2 – MANZEAL –

6 – BADGER’S RETREAT –

3 – SISSANO –

4 – SADLER JOH –

Race 2 – Open sprint – 1000m

2 – STRAIGHT LEGS – Been flying all prep even racing well when having no luck ( a few wide runs), actually drops in weight from last start after claim and he won easily! Top-rated.

3 – BENNETTS GREEN – Was no match for Straight Legs last time but will be fitter. Beaten 1L by Presently 2^ndup last prep over 1100m. Placed 15 of 19 at 1000m and claim helps.

8 – GUMNUTS – Good win over subsequent listed winner Mac’s Tune 3-back before missed start badly 2-back and close-up last time. Has won in Melb (Sandown) and lie him at 1000m/dryish ground.

6 – HELTER SKELTER – Another galloper with great 1000m record. Close-up behind Starlactic/ Imprisoned last start in a tick over 57-flat is hot form.

10 – STARTEGEE GEE – In very light after the claim. Forgive last start when pattern against and go on narrow 1^stup second. Good roughie.

Race 3 – Open 3yo Hcp – 1700m

2 – SALIENTE – Leaders weren’t winning at Bendigo and he led and beat all-bar Huypircart so the run was terrific. Gets 4.5kg on him now and previous third to Presenting now looks top form also. Might be the e/w here at value.

3 – HUYPIRCART – Was immediately placed in the ‘will win in town’ bracket after excellent win at Bendigo last start, that followed similar dominant win at Sale. Lovely type, very hard to beat!

1 – DR NIPANDTUCK – No knock on this bloke and 3kg claim a big relief. Beaten by slow pace last time and winner is smart and 1200m didn’t suit before that. Has run very well (twice) at this dist range without luck.

6 – GREENSPIEL – Struggling to break through but keeps racing in great heart. Did a good job last week kicking for home a touch early. In very light (3kg below limit) after claim. Will give a sight.

5 – SAARJUN – Only 2^ndup and ran on well behind Huypicart and co last time, fitter now and 1700m does suit. Value.

Race 4 – Grand National Hurdle – 4300m

7 – GUNZA MIGILLA –

5 – VAZOOM –

3 – BUSBY GLENN –

2 – SUPERIOR MAN –

6 – SOPRATUTTO –

Race 5 – Open Hcp – 2000m

4 – BLUTIGEROO – Came from last at Kyneton 2-back and won by over 4L eased down! Was backed at Flem off the back of that and repeated showing a lovely turn of foot at the 300m. Very promising, keen if track not too dry.

3 – FIELD HUNTER – Continues to race in great heart. Top effort 2-back after covering ground then was the only winner to come from off the pace at Sandown last start. Handles all conditions and rarely puts in a bad one!

13 – BEACH D’OR – Wide, no cover and pushing forward last time (top effort) and prior to that recorded two big wins and that form has been franked. Value runner.

1 – UMBULA – Led and kicked on a bit of a leader’s track last time but it was still a good effort. Fitter now and gets 2kg on Blutigeroo after claim. Run well.

8 – IRISH DARLING – Showed a return to form 2-back and her best is good enough to win this. Forgiving last run in traffic with pattern against. Good roughie today!

Race 6 – Winter Championship – 1400m

9 – HILLSTON EXCHANGE – reasons outlined

5 – OUR APACHE – Looked all at sea 1^stup for Freedman stable on Heavy track and fitter now anyway. 1400m form is terrific and has run very well 2^ndup his last two campaigns. Maybe 1 more run before loading up but goes in everything.

8 – HIGH COSTALANA – He is flying at present and all the form around him is strong (Haddle McDaddle/ Johnny Knoxville et al), back to 1400m wont stop him running well.

4 – CHITABE – Handy galloper who can really attack the line. At his very best with give in the track but has form on dry also (often without luck).

6 – ROADHOG – Sat on leader on leader’s track last time but the win was solid and has stood up through Kehunga (very good last week), this harder but has claims.

Race 7 – Open 3yo Hcp – 1400m

2 – MAYBE BETTER – 1^stup from long break (injury enforced) but is very talented. Form around Red Dazzler and co in only prep and trialled very well for his return. Market/ Mounting yard should tell the story but trainer generally has them right!

1 – FLASH TRICK – Took an age to wind in leader (Marjour) off very slow pace last time but good horses get there. They beat the smart Dr Nipandtuck by 3L. 1 from 1 on dry so no knock there and claim a big help.

3 – MARJOUR – Led and grabbed late by smart one last time and they gapped the rest. He likes it firm and can turn the tables on drier with soft lead.

8 – STRADDLE – Big win 1^stup and trainer has always had an opinion of him. Looks ready to produce this campaign. Been working very well at Flem. (home track)…

4 – EXCLUSIVITY – 1^stup. He flies fresh. Latest 1^stup run he hit the line hard and ran on terrific Vs slow pace behind the smart Orange County. Go well.

Race 8 – Open Hcp – 1700m

3 – CAPTIOUS – reasons outlined

9 – MISS LA TAR – Thought she was enormous last week after sitting 3,4 then 5-wide and still hitting the line. In with 51kg (3 below min) after claim and this lacks depth. Value!

8 – DEAD RABBITS – Has three wins in NZ but has form around horses who have measured up here (in Qld) so on that… should be competitive.

12 – SPORTING NEWS – Won in blanket finish last time but form looks ok with Eastwest Dancer running so well last week. Great dry track record and drawn to get gun run here. E/way.

1 – BOTERO – Only, I repeat, Only if genuine dry track… will improve sharply if he gets it…

10 – SHE LAGO – (See Botero) but replace He with She…

ROSEHILL

Race 1 – 2yo Hcp – 1200m

1.         3 - SIMPLE PLEASURES – Was backed and just pipped

1stup by Goldlago who has since won again before going

to Kembla and thrashing them in fast time. City class

horse!

2.         6 – ZAHARIAS – Very short on debut at Hawkesbury

and brained them running 58.17 (Dead Track)… certain

to measure up also.

3.         1 – TYPHOON ZED – Was plunged on, and won at 1st

start at Canterbury when ran along in the lead,

kicked, and held on. Out to 1200m now but it was a

very good win!

4.         2 – MULAMAN – Sat 6th a touch wide with trail 1stup

before coming right away late in the race, that was

also a very good win and Beadman rides, this isn’t

infinitely harder.

5.         8 – KOOKA – Chased hard and just missed behind

Typhoon Zed. 1200m suits her and gets 1kg advantage

this time.

Race 2 – F&M Hcp – 1500m

1.         1 – PALABIRO – Was clearly the best of the

on-pacers when resumed here when forced to take the

sit on tearaway leader. She flies 2ndup too having won

2 of 3 (was runner-up the other occasion). Claim sees

her in 1.5kg better than Contrast this time.

2.         3 – CONTRAST – Did win running away here last start

(always great sign) and out to 1500m probably suits

even better. Loves Rosehill, Beadman rides… all the

ticks!

3.         11 – HIPPONA – Beautifully bred mare from Walter

stable who kept coming last start behind two

subsequent city winners (Penhurst/ Jeteye). Drier

track suits and she can win. Best value bet in the

race…

4.         5 – NENA CANDIDA – Third to Contrast/ Palabiro last

time when only 2ndup and having her first go ‘Sydney’

way. She has plenty of scope to improve and in well at

relative weights.

5.         12 – ELLA LA ROSSA – Promising filly who got home

hard behind Tin Pan and she did have some support at

long odds in. Bit harder Vs older mares but has

upside. Good roughie.

Race 3 – 3yo Class 3 Hcp – 1200m

1.         11 – LAYLIA – 1stup. Trialled very well for her

return and is 1 from 1 resuming. Always gave the

impression last prep would benefit her. Will win

plenty of races.

2.         7 – CURBYOURENTHUSIASM – Beat all-bar Flying Orders

when resuming and it is worth noting she improved

sharply 2ndup at her only other campaign (close second

to Anapine). Hawkes/ Beadman and drier track all

ticks.

3.         3 – RUBINDA – Has what you need to win races this

bloke… a turn of foot but he still has plenty to

learn. Thought the run was really good last start when

covered a heap of extra ground and still loomed to

win. Still green, and gate 17 no help but must

include!

4.         12 – CANNON – Showed plenty on debut back in Feb

when green, wide and in traffic yet attacked the line

to win. Immediately spelled and you can bet he has

come on in the break… wide alley no help but watch

him.

5.         2 – CALIDAN – Beat Innings two-back before flopping

on Slow track. Like him on the fresh side…. Can win if

gets across easily from wide alley.

6.         6 – UPSIZED – Promote right up if track

legitimately dry.

Race 4 – 3yo Class 6 Hcp – 1500m

1.         2 – POSTCODE – Heavily backed last time after

hitting the line like a coming winner the previous

start but thwarted by ridiculous tempo. Drawn out this

time but there looks more speed about. Bet he runs

well…

2.         4 – GYPSY HONOUR – Under-rated galloper. Certainly

did enough 1stup in leader-dominated race before

making up good ground 2ndup on Slow track. 3rdup and

peaking now and has a good 3rdup record. Value !

3.         16 – PRINCE OF MIDNIGHT – Forgive 1stup run when

diagnosed with the thumps (heart irreg), Thought he

was the best of the closers 2ndup behind two

subsequent city winners (Penhurst/ Jeteye) on Slow

track. Drier, fitter ticks but wide gate a negative.

Value with luck

4.         7 – PANJANDRUM – Might just be a wet-tracker and

would be very confident each-way on Slow/Heavy… Still,

can lead and get his own way and has upside. Include.

5.         1 – MYSTERY CITY – Can forgive last run when

3-wide, no cover on the speed. Form behind Triple Dee/

With A Chance (ran third) before that is good enough

here.

Race 5 – Welter Hcp – 1800m

1.         3 – OPAL CHIP – Thought last run was a ripper when

back 2L last off a slow pace and worked home very

nicely. Thompson takes over the ride and has a great

rapport with him. May just be the value here ?

2.         7 – GAZE ON – Came from last here last start and

ran on terrific despite being the widest runner

turning. Don’t mind the form from that race with

Eastwest Dancer (arguably) the run of the race last

Sat. Can win !

3.         2 – LOOKOUT – Wasn’t sure wet 1stup but he handled

it nicely and toughed out a win over the very smart

Hit The Road. Was a month between runs there too so

even fitter now and 1800m suits better, if anything. A

must.

4.         4 – PEKALAN – Has a whirlwind finish. Just ran out

of ground last time and winner has since won again

(Taken At The Flood). Will be charging late…

5.         6 – CINCINNATI GAL – Showed a return to form last

start looming to win (beaten 1.2L) this track/trip.

Still don’t think she had a soft run. Interesting she

was backed there ($19 to $12)

Race 6 – Listed Winter Cup – 2400m

1.         3 – BRAVE LANCER – Launched late after Taken At The

Flood last time and had a little set-back prior to

that run so expecting him to turn the tables here.

Weight pull helps too… quite keen !

2.         2 – TAKEN AT THE FLOOD – Travelled up strongly last

time and won well. Never runs a bad race and

absolutely loves Rosehill. The obvious.

3.         1 – VERB – Tracked Taken At The Flood everywhere

last time but just couldn’t nail him. Weight swing

helps and possibly fitter now. Previous run excellent

after working hard. You could make a case for sure!

4.         7 – MR COLLINS – Place hope.

Race 7 – 3yo Class 6 – 1200m

1.         8 – PELENNIUM – reasons outlined

2.         12 – PURPLE DANE – Got back and rattled home 1stup

in high-rating race. Flies 2ndup and in well at the

weights. Good chance despite wide draw (track pattern/ scratchings may help ?)

3.         18 – WALK ALONE – Smart Mare this. Did like her

effort 1stup behind Junebug (since won again) and

loved her stringing big wins together last prep. Has a

lovely action. Fitter now and plummets in weight…

include in everything !

4.         3 – THE JACKAL – 3yo with plenty of weight here but

is very gifted. Keeps running well despite wide runs

and over-racing… when he learns what it is all about

he could be anything… may get a smother from middle

gate too.

5.         11 – APPALACHIAN – Typically gutsy run 1stup. Won

2ndup last prep and in very well after the claim. Will

sit on the speed and give a great sight. Might box

these up in tri.

Race 8 – Listed Winter Stks – 1400m

1.         4 – HIT THE ROAD – reasons outlined

2.         16 – ROVING OWL – Worked home nicely last time in

hot race after sitting deep (with cover), out to 1400m certainly a plus. Prefers it dry.

3.         6 – WITH A CHANCE – Pipped by the smart Triple Dee

two-back which surrounded two really good, tough wins

and all that form is ok. Loves 1400m, handles all

conditions and is just sooo honest.

4.         2 – HAVANA WIND – Struggled on heavy 1stup but will

improve on drier and is somewhat of a 2ndup

specialist. Gate 1 any help now, race 8 ?

5.         3 – MR ARISTOS – Every chance last two wins on

walking speed but all he can do is win. 1400m

certainly holds no fears.

Good Luck !

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

Racing at FLEMINGTON last Saturday was on a SLOW Track with the Rail out 2M. There was a distinct advantage to horses either on the pace or making their runs through on the inside so be careful when assessing the form here.

RUN OF THE DAY: Going with the well-backed BLUTIGEROO here who had settled midfield and showed a nice turn of foot at the 300m to win well. He did come down the middle where most winners were not coming from and suspect we haven’t seen the best of him yet?

The first-6 home here did gap the rest of the field in Race 7 and the time for the 2000m was 2:04.652.40 seconds faster than the 3yo’s over the same trip earlier in the day.

Other good runs: FORCE NINE (made up very good ground late) and FIELD HUNTER (covered a little ground, ran on) were very noteworthy.

Race 2 saw a boilover in EXAMINATION rolling a very handy field. Was a maiden prior to this from 12 starts and no matter how many times I watch the replay… I still cannot believe it won! Anyway, good luck to connections. EVILWEB, the filly with topweight, rattled home and was very strong late. MIND YOUR HEAD had every chance…. They ran a handy 1:10.10 here.

Race 3 (3yo/ 1400m) was won by SPEEDY ROSSA who came right away early in the straight. He can pull out a run at Flemington!!! Ran 1:24.51 (slower than 2yos) off a 48.47 1^st-80m (around 9 lengths slower 1^st 800m than 2yos). SHE’S COMMANDING (made up very good ground through on inside), MALOOSE (midfield, made very good ground, outside this run probably had more merit ?) were good but there were some hard luck tales (see forgive file)

The 3yos over 200m in Race 4 ran 2:07.05 and winner HEARTPOURING was given a great ride, and was backed! WELL RESEARCHED settled midfield and wide with a trail and ran on well. Probably never in the best spot

The straight 1000m (Race 5) saw STRAIGHT LEGS quite dominant. Co-led and broke right away… ran 57.32 here. Runner-up BENNETTS GREEN raced outside winner. No match.  SENSaTIONAL SWING had the quickest last 600/400m sectionals but never threatened and CHITABE was doing some very nice work, very late (last 200m sectional bettered only by the winner’s).

Race 6 and HIGH COSTALANA brained them! Was backed heavy also…  They ran a 61.56 1^st-1000m here, much faster (almost 2 seconds) than fillies & mares in Race 8 too. BANGAND did make up very good ground through on inside, JOHNNY KNOXVILLE ran on (not in best spot) and RED ALI chased hard all the way home and was a month between runs. Did like the run of REGAL HAWK here. Was last and held-up, got to outside and flew home… excellent Vs bias. One of the runs of the day!

In the last it was CENTASHANI who does find it hard to win but when smothered away like she was here, she can be very dangerous. They ran 63.42 1^st-1000m and the overall was also slower than the males in race 7. Hard to miss GRACIOUS CURVES charging home along the inside. WILDCOAST had every chance. GLEN SHIAN loomed from the back and is desperate for drier ground and LAST GOODBYE (Best sectionals home here) came from back, then widest. Good Vs pattern and hit the line.

THE FORGIVE FILE:

HERESAY (back and wide), INVOLARE (something wrong !?), PAMPERO GIRL (bled), TOWN OF DRAGON (prefer dry), LUMINARY (poleaxed.. twice!), THIS IS ME (bad check), BELLA PRINCESS (still not clear), LACEY UNDERALL (dry track needed), BOTERO (ditto), ON THE GREEN (back and 6-deep), GREEN BEAN (wide run), ALI BENBARA (bled) and MISS DETORI (back and wide).

In Sydney racing was at RANDWICK on a very heavy track with the rail out 5m. Almost every winner was on-pace or came through inside also…

RUN OF THE DAY: Going with the only winner to come from well off the speed… IMPATIENT STAR. Boy he can attack the line this guy. Was 2^nd-last at the 800m.

There were some ripper runs in this: INNINGS (covered ground and brought winner into it) and BEAU COVET (2 L last at 60m and rattled home – best sectionals !) were the two most notable!

In Race 1 SHY BALDY led all the way and looked to revel in the wet. SOMETHING ANYTHING was slow out but then box-seated. Did try hard and the odds-on pop ULLADULLA ran third.. had every chance.

Race 3 and JACKASS sat outside the speed, gradually took control, and held on. RUBINDA loomed to win after coming from well back and making a 4-wide move before the turn but couldn’t finish off. ZOO CITY LAD did hit the line once over heels (best late sectionals). ONION came very wide into straight… you could forgive but… he finds an excuse every time!

LOOKOUT won Race 4 after saving ground into the straight, then getting off the fence… hit line ok and held off a handy racehorse in HIT THE ROAD who seemed to take a few strides to wind up. They ran 1:26.10 which shows you how heavy this track was.

Race 5 and VIONNETO did it again. Strong home again. ZAROUK had led and ran second from FOR VALOUR who stayed on the inside rail and did record the best secs home. UBER was home just ok (third-fastest secs home). Time for the 110m was 1:06.54

SHARP AUNTY recorded win no.2 in Race 6. She knuckled down well to grab the early leader RHYTHMIC SKY who had kicked, and did look the winner. INDIVIDUAL attacked the line late through on the inside 2^nd-up…. Her history says her best runs are 1^stup or 2^ndup so will see if she can train on? BEAUTIFUL SALLY was very strong, very late (ran 5^th).

In the last and on a tough day for punters ROCKING ON held off the heavily backed DELTA EAGLE who made wide run with no trail in and, in reality, was the best run in the race… (big help!?!?!).

ARTISTIQUE never runs poorly (third) and THREE TENORS ran on (inside DELTA EAGLE and was no match the last 200m – Was 1L inferior). EL MEROO was making ground when had to ease inside 200m… should have finished closer!

Friday June 9th 2006

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

Racing at FLEMINGTON last week was on a SLOW track with the Rail out 12M. There was no significant advantage or bias on the track other than almost all jockeys steered away from ‘hard up’ on the inside rail. The one straight race they came to the outside rail.

RUN OF THE DAY: Going with the lightly raced SOVEREIGN MISS from the final event who was having her first try beyond 1200m, was slow out and back last (amazingly was still 2^nd last at the 200m mark) and she absolutely hurtled home and her 35.52 last 600m was the quickest of the day! Follow her!!!

Other good runs in Race 8 were seen from: DIRTY DENIM (the winner) got up inside the leader and had every chance but was very strong home, she was in front at the 200m and ran the fastest last 200m of the day in 12.35 – just 2x100ths of a second faster than Sovereign Miss. Now 7 starts for 5 wins. She can be followed also.

KINGSTON BIRD came from back and swung widest and got home well and IRISH DARLING hit the line ok here 2^ndup and will be fitter.

The Mares ran 1:26.81 for the 1420m off a modest 1^st-800m of 49.62

In Race 2 it was the genuine DYNA MYTA who settled back with cover and ran over them all. She wouldn’t know how to run a bad race… DOLLYDEVA settled up on the pace before taking over inside the 100m but was grabbed late, good effort and BUTTERFIELD who looks a real swimmer, kept coming to the line… these three dominated the sectional times (home) too. SWIT (fourth) did a good job on-pace a nit too close to the inside. Time for 1100m 1:05.71

Over to Race 5 and the filly PRESENTING had to really dig deep. Was giving weight to some Males so the effort was good and she was given a gun-run. WELL RESEARCHED, the runner-up, came up inside the leader and was out-bobbed (every chance) with SALIENTE third, who had led out by 3L coming to the turn… has his share of natural ability this one. WILDCOAST (fastest last 400/200m splits), the filly, kept closing and really hit the line, she is very honest and this was only her second run back and she was jumping from 1200m-to-1630m… Probably the run of the race here as she did cover ground (with trail) too.

SILENT ECHO showed no ‘ping’ but ground home and FLORIZEL worked home satisfactorily between runners.

Race 6 and it was PARMAR DAY proving dominant. Broke clear over on the inside and won it by 4 lengths… Ran over 1 full second faster than DIRTY DENIM in the last (ran 1:25.74) and was really impressive. BIRD DANCER came from well back and was held-up passing the 300m… flew to the line, he is going great guns for this stable.

HILLSTON EXCHANGE was very good on pace (again) and ALI BENBARA came from well back and swung wide (sectionals home inferior only to winner and runner-up).

ROYAL IDA had every chance but the weights are against him and GIBERNAU did enough for something a shade easier.

LUMINARY (needs drier), JERRIHAUL (ditto), BELLA STREGA (rider concerned, didn’t stretch out – was too bad to be true), GALITERI (wide run, no cover), PERSONAL PEAK (very wide), FOREST SPY (very wide), VAZOOM (took off mid-race), MYALANSKY (needs drier), SHE LAGO (ditto), LA FAV (rider concerned at start, horse vetted, rider concerned with action during the race – ran poorly, inclined to forgive this!).

In Sydney racing was at ROSEHILL on a DEAD track with the Rail out 3M. Track played ok.

CONROD STRAIGHT (only 2^ndup) came home very strongly on the inside and fitter now (late sectionals behind only winner’s). MIND THE STEP had his chance but kept closing and does want further…

Back to Race 1 for the 2yo’s and CERTAIN MAGIC sat up second and recorded the fastest last 200m of the race and was strong/tough to the line holding off the talented THRONE INN who had been given time to balance up and did obtain a lovely split… liked the win!

ABRUPTIONS was third and did have every chance (last 400m was .14 behind Throne Inn) and PUNCHINELLO ran on to the 100m then he was held… Time for the 1200m was 1:13.04.

Race 2 and the very rough CARSKI DRUM got up on the inside and pipped the early leader IMPERIAL THUNDER on the line. It was an on-pace dominated race where leaders ran a tick under 51 seconds for their 1^st-800m and the overall time of 2:04.56 was just… CAPE BRETON was wide early but got in, ran on ok with no trail in, did just enough to my eye. DANAHAR ran on (again!) and had fastest last 200m (again!) but needs to win one, could be a “gunner” !?!?!?

NUCLEAR SKY (home nice) and LECURES (home ok) were mentionable.

Race 3 and MELODY had to really dig in to grab SILENT SONG who was in for the fight… great battle these two. Time was ok 1:24.57 for 1400m too.

DOUBLOON who cant get weight relief had led at her own pace (49.35 1^st-800m) and fought on for third whilst SULLIVAN’S CREEK made up very nice late ground and did record the fastest last 200m of the race… good run off slow tempo!

FLYING ALPHA (Race 4) now does she have some things to learn or what ? Reluctant to take the run between horses, very green when let down but has her fair share of ability… Wonder when the blinkers/winkers are coming (or will she race too fierce?) John O’Shea will get her right and connections will have some fun.

She ran 1:17.51 for the 1300m which was just .32 slower than MR ARISTOS in the last in open company over same trip.

Other good runs here: TIN PAN (rocketed late – still a maiden but not for long I’m tipping), HANNA ROSSA (got very wide, laying out in straight – first go Sydney way) and GENUINELY (slow out, came widest, home hard… sectionals inferior to only Tin Pan) were all noteworthy. Even HEAD EM UP was honest for something a shade easier…

Race 5 and GUNFIRE MESSIAH who grows a leg when the tracks have the sting out was too good for a modest lot. CONTRAST ran on hard  and did hit the line as did DOUBLE DARE but really… not much to report outside the top-3 here…

In Race 7 it was the honest TAKEN AT THE FLOOD getting up inside and winning. Good ride, gave him every possible hope. VERB did work early to sit outside the lead and ran terrific, PEKALAN (heavily backed) charged at the line but ran out of ground and AMIANAN and CASH CARTER were typically honest… these 5 did gap the rest of the field. PEKALAN clearly had the fastest last 200m of the race from PRECISE TIMING who did enough 2^ndup with 60.5kg, should be ready to improve now. Overall time for the 2000m was 2:04.37 and the leaders got away with a 51.28 1^st-800m so no excuses up front…

In the last it was MR ARISTOS leading and giving a big kick. Won well and ran 1:17.19 for the 1300m. MR UBIQUITOS is forever running on but never wins, he ran second and POSTCODE, who ran third, was spotted finding the line very strongly here 2^ndup and can be followed with confidence. TURAGA and BARBERTON recorded handy sectionals home but never threatened…

THE FORGIVE FILE:

CANYONVILLE (pulled up lame), IRISH MYTH (wide run), REDOUTES MAGIC (over raced badly), FRITZ’S PRINCESS (back and wide, came very wide turning, ran ok), FOREST DASH (wide, no cover), SINUOUS (very wide), PELENNIUM (wide on speed, only 2^ndup here and fought on well), COUNT MILANO (beaten by handicapper), RETRACT (looong way back?), PRESTO VITE (injured), CINCINNATI GAL (wide – again!), FORCE APOLLO (6-deep) and HIGH PRIORITY (heart irregularity)

PLEASE NOTE:

All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for DEAD Track. Rail back to 2M. No bias expected. In straight races expect the outside rail to be the preferred place to be.

In Sydney racing is at RANDWICK. Ratings are for HEAVY Track and the rail is out 5M from 1600m-to-WP (2M remainder). Winners were off the inside rail here last time on SLOW track but weren’t down the outside rail like they were at the end of the carnival. Expecting run-ons to have no disadvantage.

BET OF THE DAY:

FLEMINGTON – Race 8 No.5 – WILDCOAST – This very honest mare from the Lee Freedman stable put the writing on the wall last week when came widest (after covering ground with a trail) and closed very strongly really hit the line late whilst recording the fastest sectionals home of any runner. When you take into account she was only 2^ndup from a spell and jumping from 1200m to 1630m it is very safe to assume she will have derived great benefit from the outing. WILDCOAST actually drops in weight and grade here (back to fillies grade) and she is just so genuine you know she will give her all. Loves Flemington too… One out in quaddie for mine!

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY:

RANDWICK – Race 3 No.2 – RUBINDA – This promising son of Rubiton still looks to be putting it all together as he does have a few bad habits still to iron out. Terrific effort last start when came from a long way back and joined in very strongly before rolling around and costing himself a win, the run had plenty of merit when you consider, him aside, the race was very much dominated by on-pace runners and they ran only slightly inferior time to the open class sprinters that same day despite a 3-4Length slower 1^st-600m sectional. RUBINDA did chase home the older horses there and now comes back to his own age group and carry exactly the same weight. He is the best weighted runner in this event ! He proved with his last start placing he can handle rain-affected going (most Rubiton’s do) and he is expected to be seen charging home at the end of the 1100m here.

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY:

FLEMINGTON – Race 7 No.2 – STAMEN – Thought his run was one of the best in the race last start behind RUBIJON when forced to go back to the inside section of track (here) which was clearly inferior ground that day. His effort to still record some of the better sectionals in the race in said inferior ground with his 58.5kg was super. The form has stood up too (Emmooki Street/ Gold Attire). He gets some nice weight relief here after 2kg claim for N.Beriman and is only 3.5kg over the limit and this is a horse who has proven very competitive at Gp1 and Gp2 level as recently as last spring. He loves Flemington, he loves this distance range and just the sting out of the track is ideal… Keen on him and hope that $7 quoted early holds up… that is value !

*** BONUS – TOP-RATED RUNNERS FOR THE MAJOR RACE IN EACH STATE ***

FLEMINGTON -  Race 5 – Hcp – 1000m

1. 3 – STRAIGHT LEGS – Beaten by Miss Andretti and Stratton Place last start and easily beat Paris Zero/ Pretty Penny. They ran fast time and the form is already stacking up. Wide on speed before that when a gutsy third to Murray Downs. 1000m record is terrific. Callow to get him away from inside from gate 5 and he’ll run very well…
2. 6 – KILL THE CAT – Fought very hard but nutted by Snappy Tom last start when only 1^stup. Has run well 2^ndup (off freshens) many times in the past. Probably needs to be off the inside rail from gate 2 but has early speed.
3. 7 – TARN PRINCESS – Good effort on Heavy track 2-back carting 60.5kg before staying on inside rail here last time (very much inferior ground) and finishing 3.8L off Snappy Tom/ Kill The Cat. Meets the latter 2.5kg better here and drier track will certainly suit. Value!!!
4. 1 – BENNETTS GREEN – Very good short-course sprinter with handy 1^stup form. Was beaten 2.7L 1^stup last prep (Kill The Cat was second) and meets him 4kg better now.Won previous fresh campaign over Wardsky… Claim a big help.
5. 8 – CHITABE – Two months off into this. Ran second to Elmatilla 1^stup last prep over 1300m but did beat home Rubiton Raider there. Only 1000m/Flem run was his debut… and he won. Has claims.

RANDWICK  Race 5 – Listed June Stks – 1100m

1. 8 – FORESTRENO – Forget ran last start when the saddle slipped, grabbed in the shadows by Vionneto prior to that but expecting a fitter horse here for the return bout. Wet track form is very sound. Probably the safe e/way option.
2. 1 – MUSTARD – Just never runs poorly. Has run some terrific races in Slow ground including last start second to Silk And Money running on hard with massive impost (59.5kg). Loves the 1100m and gets a little weight relief…
3. 4 – GUMNUTS – Won his only Heavy track run (at Ipswich) but is a better horse these days. Started favourite behind Silk and Money last start but missed the start 3Lengths and did make late ground back nearer the inside. Nothing between he and Mustard here…
4. 2 – VIONNETO – Great ride from gate 1 to swoop home last time when rolling Forestreno. That was Slow track and he can really finish hard this guy. Drawn inside again so check track pattern. Loves Randwick!
5. 3 – FOR VALOUR – 1^stup. Always gives his all and fresh record much better than you see on paper. Placed 2 from 2 on Slow/Heavy and Randwick/ 1100m form is also sound… Very genuine. May get out to silly odds here?

Friday June 2nd 2006

Thanks to OzRacingForm.com for providing their 'Group 1'Premium Version of their Service to 'Merv's Aussie World of Sport'
 for a limited time !!!
Tips and Analysis for each weekends Sydney and Melbourne Metropolitan races will be published here every Friday by 1700 (AEDT)

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

Racing at MOONEE VALLEY last Saturday was on a SLOW Track with the rail True. As is usually the case with a True rail, horses were getting off the inside rail pretty quickly and no winners were on the inside section of track in the straight…

RUN OF THE DAY: Race 7 was a pretty hot off season 3yo sprint race and there were (predictably) some ripper runs in it… giving the nod to JENNINGS here who came from well off the speed, came very wide and really found the line in the straight… ready to win!

No knock on the winner EVILWEB though, very smart galloper and judging by the way he rolled around, he still has some learning to do. Stick with him confidently up to 1400m. RUBISCENT ran third and was having only start no.2, was spotted hitting the line very nicely… has a bright future and both TESTATUDE (pushed back to inside rail, slowest section) and DR NIPANDTUCK (back out to 1400m please… loved his last 100m!) were very good efforts.

The 3yo’s ran 1:14.03 for the 1200m which was virtually identical to the older horses in race 8 (2 x 100ths of a second slower) off a 35.80 1^st-600m.

Back to Race 1 and the lightly raced LOANHEAD was successful coming from last, then widest… won very well but it was a race set-up for the closers with lots of mid-race moves. BELLA PRINCESS (second) ran on well as did GREENSPIEL (third) who made an early, wide run… good effort. These three beat the rest quite easily… fourth-placed IL FAVORITO was no match for first three but interestingly, did beat the 5^th horse comfortably…  They ran 2:10.79 for 2040m (1.52 faster than Mares/ Celtic Bloom over same trip) but pace/pressure was on here.

In Race 2 for the Mares over 2040m CELTIC BLOOM was quite dominant… She ran 2:12.31 (slower than 3yo’s – race 1) in a much easier tempo race (first 1440m sectional was 2.40 seconds slower). Winner came from back and wide Vs a slow speed. All honours!

SWINGING BABE continues to race well, she has leant to handle wet tracks people so include her… ARIA DIVA hit the line and ALL CHARISMA looks desperate for further.

Race 4 saw APPIAN WAY record a rare win. Beat STRATEGEE GEE and ran 1:01.27 (slightly faster than other division of the 1000m flying). ZIMSTAR was a good run for drier/easier.

Race 5 (second division of 1000m flying) was won by SNAPPY TOM in 1:01.43. Interesting though that this race had a .60 slower 1^st-600m. First two: SNAPPY TOM and KILL THE CAT were 1,2 all the way… they ran slower time but suspect this was the better race!

Did like the run of TWO SONS 1^stup over unsuitable 1000m trip, kept closing hard after tracking wide from off the speed. TWIRLING HEIGHTS made up good ground but rarely wins…

Race 6 and it was JACQUES LE NAIF scoring strongly after enjoying a lovely trail into the race, great ride. Gee he has a big finish! Ran 1:41.27 for the 1600m

Other good runs in it: SHAG ON A ROCK (home nicely a couple off inside), GALLANTREE (super honest and bit close to inside), FORCE NINE (over heels, hit the line and fitter now) and MARSCAY’S IMAGE (led, tough to lead today, was big odds).

In the last, it was on-pace dominated as the two leaders went through their 1^st-600m in 36.00 then kicked away before the turn. Winner PARIS ZERO did have the drop on them and knuckled down strongly. ILLUSIONIST led and ran well. Best run in the race (arguably) was PRETTY PENNY’s who was slow out, saved ground inside, and ran on well in leader dominated event. NENA CANDIDA made good ground from the back, closest to inside. Good Vs pattern of race/day.

THE FORGIVE FILE:

OCEAN CROSSING (wide, forward to lead, no hope), LAST GOODBYE (back in traffic, did find the line in straight), FLAG RAISER (led, over-raced and wide), BROKAW (4-wide, no cover, kept on… ran very well), COFFEESHOPRUMOURS (checked badly turning, back last), TARN PRINCESS (too close to inside), INTOXICATION (made long, wide run)KINGS FAREWELL (stayed inside rail again !?!?), NATURAL MAN (covered too much ground), DIG IN (wide run, forward mid-race, needs easier anyway) and LULA (very wide).

IN SYDNEY racing was at RANDWICK on a DEAD track downgraded to SLOW after Race 4. After race 4 there were some real long-shots, hope you found them?

Pattern of the day was that winners were certainly off the inside rail but it wasn’t necessary to be on the outside rail either…

RUN OF THE DAY: No doubt REIGNING TO WIN in Race 2 for the 2yo’s. Back, 3-wide  without cover and over-raced a little… came widest and was a mile too good. Ran 1:25.05 for the 1400m as leaders steadied mid-race. That leader was WESTICARO who held second.

Other good runs: BOMBER COMMAND (tried hard, kept coming) and CALM SEAS (strong to line through on inside  - last 200m was actually .06 faster than very smart winner… hmmm)

Race 1 and very worried about the form when MR COLLINS (3^rd win from 30) rolls ALSO (100/1 but does like it wet). Relative weights were against PETULENGRO (third) but very worried here…

Race 3 over 1800m and it was a walk early. 1^st-800m of 52.80 is very slow… Winner, DIAMOND SUN, came from co-last off that pace so all honours… had some of the faster splits home on the day too. Very smart when in the mood. JYMCAREW was ridden a treat attacking slow pace before the bend… ran second. LOVAN and HASTA MANANA recorded handy sectionals home off slow pace.

Race 4 and hope a few of you stuck with INNINGS (I know I didn’t), he was very strong to the line through on the inside and actually won ‘running away’. Always shown very good ability and 1400m was what he was after… $9 on course!!! The first-five home here were all run-ons:

WORLD RULER (made good ground in not enough room), NGORAGORA (at it turn, kept coming.. .further again), DANOISERIE (back, came wide, ran well) and RED STAR RAIDER (kept on) were said ‘first-five’. CRIMINAL was best on-pacer and did cover ground… ran well to my eye. They ran 1:24.26 clearly the fastest of the 3 x 1400m races on the card.

Track downgraded before Race 5 and up bobs SOMETHING LEICAJEM at $80-odd… co-led and didn’t ‘fall in’. actually was quite strong on the line… Non-winner SHARP AUNTY was second and did cover ground. Best run in the race was seen from ARTISTIQUE coming from last and at it 600m out… rocketed home and recorded fastest closing sectionals of the day despite track downgrade! SOUL DIVA (2^ndup) kept closing and looks ready now…

Race 6 the third 1400m race was won by ANWAAR in 1:24.89 and it was a tough, tough win. Took over before the turn despite one taking off 800m which would have suited the backmarkers… ANWAAR fought them all off. Top effort! GUNFIRE MESSIAH relishes some rain and he challenged strongly 2^ndup.. fitter. AGUA CORRIENDO rattled home through on inside after being very slow out and the lightly raced BARON RUTHVEN ran on well down the outside. Had second-fastest splits home behind AGUA CORRIENDO… old stager JON RON had third-fastest final 200m

Race 7 and the first 3 home did gap the rest. RHYTHMIC SKY (outside lead, kicked and held on) beat RUBINDA (back, joined in quickly, laying in proved very costly!!!) and FLYING ORDERS (led in 36-flat 1^st-600m). Fourth-placed TIMELESS MISS made up tremendous ground on inside rail which wasn’t ideal spot. Good. Also, didn’t mind the runs of BOOM SHAKER (wide before turn) and TE DEUM (wide early, kept coming – was heavily backed!). Time for the 1100m was 1:05.22

Another 1100m race was Race 8 (this one Open Hcp) and they ran 1:04.87 (much faster 1^st-600m here, .70 faster in fact) and the very honest SILK AND MONEY came from just off the pace, went up inside leaders and kicked away. MUSTARD ran on hard with big weight after sitting wide with trail, good effort and CONNOISSEUR was spotted hitting the line ok this class. A few have ‘got life’ after this race though… a few we can certainly forgive (see forgive file)…

THE FORGIVE FILE:

TURN AND BURN (worked mid-race), COALMINER (over-raced terribly), ONE IOTA (poor in wet), DESERT LAD (respiratory distress/ noise), DANCESTEPS (poor recovery), QUEEN JILL (slow out, passed a few), LARA’S WAY (back, was running on when held-up 200m – ran ok), CALALUNA (poor recovery), TEEPEE GEEGEE (wide), NOREIL (3 & 4 wide – forward before turn, ran ok too), LETTER OF INTENT (respiratory distress), FORESTRENO (saddle slipped), RETURN OF THE KING (very wide), PORT PERU (sore back and lame), CROWN TOWN (ran off at start), PRESENTLY (no run/luck vital stage) and GUMNUTS (slow 3L, made ground).

TO TODAY’S SELECTIONS…

PLEASE NOTE:

All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for SLOW Track. Rail is out 12M. At the latest meeting here the Rail was out 9M and winners were coming well off the inside rail and in straight races, the outside rail was the place to be. Expecting similar scenario to evolve here (that is, no ‘bias’ but run-ons no worries and the outside rail the place to be in straight races)… don’t be scared to back on-pacers though…

In Sydney racing is at ROSEHILL. All ratings are for GOOD track with the rail out 3M. Rail was True here May 20 when all winners were off the inside rail. Running on will not be a problem…

BET OF THE DAY:

ROSEHILL – Race 7 No.8 – PEKALAN – There is some real quality about this Mare, just wonder what here strike-rate would be if she had any early speed at all ? Should have won the Country Cup at Randwick three-back when held-up hopelessly then producing an amazing last 100m going past handy horses like they were standing still. Went back to 1400m two-back and came from tailed-off to win running away producing that paralysing sprint which manifests every time she gets a clear run and a reasonable speed up front… Really liked her last start effort in the Scone Cup when very slow out and, you guessed it, rattled home. She can run some freak sectionals this mare. Out to 2000m today, she has attempted this distance once, and she came from near last and won by 2.5Lengths that day at Randwick. This doesn’t look a very hard race to win with a few handy gallopers right up in the weights and she does come in relatively well at said weight-scale. Will be charging!!!

BEST EACH WAY BET OF THE DAY:

FLEMINGTON – Race 8 No.4 – LA FAV - All three runs this prep have been terrific. Was spotted getting home very hard last start despite making her run a bit too close to the inside at Caulfield where the winners were not. Centashani was thrashed there and has since won. She’s peaking 4^thup and Flemington form is much better than it looks on paper (1 was 1200m up straight, and she has 2 close-up fourth’s one at the end of a prep the other she was beaten .7 of a length). She loves give in the track (placed 13 of 21 on Dead/Slow) and is in very light after the claim… (meets likely Favourite Kingston Bird 2kg better for last clash) Drawn well and another who will be charging home. Great Value I suspect!

BONUS:

FLEMINGTON - Race 6 – Winter Championship Heat 2 – 1420m

1. 2 – ROYAL IDA – Excellent effort last time when 3-wide the trip, no cover, with 58kg carting the winner into the race. Fought like a tiger too. This doesn’t look any harder and will jump from gate 7 if emergencies come out and get a much softer run. Doubt he’ll miss eachway!?!?
2. 7 – BIRD DANCER – Promised much as a youngster and now looks to be delivering under new trainer. Beaten by track bias two-back when second to the flying Jacques Le Naif (caught on inside rail, still recorded best sectionals!) before sitting wide and proving too good last time. Run well.
3. 16 – HILLSTON EXCHANGE – Worked to lead here last time (wide first turn) and was very good/brave. It wasn’t a leader’s day there either and he ran third-fastest last 400/200m despite working early. Just needs to gain a start (2^nd emergency) to be right in the finish!
4. 12 – PARMAR DAY – Has had a little freshen (6 weeks) since Adelaide sojourn when had no luck as favourite in Tokyo City Cup. Beat all-bar Rubijon before that (how is that form) and he races very well when on the fresh side (no precedent 6 weeks between runs). Gets gun-run from gate 2. Goes in everything.
5. 8 – GIBERNAU – Only 2^ndup here last time when spotted hitting the line nicely behind the very smart Miss Andretti (last 200m sectional bettered only by the winner there). That form already ‘proven’ (Paris Zero last week at MV). Fitter now and his 1400m form terrific of late (including big win here in a tick over 1-22-flat)
6. 14 – TARA’S HALLS – Next best off narrow placing behind Bird Dancer and ‘virtual dead-heat’ behind Off White in a race of depth at Bendigo.

ROSEHILL - Race 6 – Class 6 Hcp – 1100m

1. 1 – PRESTO VITE – reasons outlined
2. 6 – NATURAL DESTINY – Very promising colt resuming. Has won both fresh runs by an aggregate 7 lengths and last prep went on to win 2 races in town (beat Beauty Watch). Is a 3yo Vs older horses and drawn out but has significant upside to him and could well go on to much better… just needs stroke of luck.
3. 8 – APPALACHIAN – 1^stup. Another promising galloper resuming and did beat Geigeron 1^stup two preps back by some 4.3 lengths. At latest campaign when fresh he led and got tired late before finishing 1.9L off Mind The Step. Wide gate a possible negative ?
4. 11 – RETRACT – Was held-up hopelessly over on the inside passing the 300m mark last start before obtaining a narrow gap and hitting the line super… could well have won that? Her 1100m form is terrific as is her Rosehill form… go well.
5. 9 – LA REATA – Only 1 win from 18 but often spotted running well in much better company. In 2.5kg below the limit after the claim and is a good roughie for your multiples…
6. 2 – COUNT MILANO – Finally broke through last start (runner-up unlucky) but cant knock his consistency (last 10 starts has finished first or second)… weights are against and not 100% sure back to 1100m ideal but a must for multiples…

Thanks to OzRacingForm.com for providing their 'Group 3' Version of their Service to 'Merv's Aussie World of Sport'
  Tips and Analysis for each weekends Sydney and Melbourne Metropolitan races will be published here every Friday by 1700 (AEDT)

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

Racing at FLEMINGTON was on a SLOW track, rail was 9M and horses were winning up the middle, then wider, then wider… in straight race, those on or near the outside rail dominated.

RUN OF THE DAY: Going around the (perhaps) obvious in Miss Andretti and giving the nod to STAMEN. His effort to rattle home through on the inside (closest to inside) which was clearly inferior ground, with his 58.5kg, was quite outstanding to this eye… as our regulars know, we never nag jockeys here it is more often than not a cop out but not sure why you’d stick inside ??? Hope Stamen gets some weight for his next run… stick with him if you want to win money!

JOSE AMIGIO (2^nd) ran on hard a bit close to inside but he rarely wins, FIELD HUNTER (3^rd) ridden cold, came widest with big finish and EMMOOKI STREET (5^th) covered ground were all good.  Time for the 2000m was 2:07.30 (slow track)

In Race 2 it was the Lee Freedman $1Million colt DISCORSI who led and won impressively. Yes he had a softish lead but was barely ridden the last 200m… trainer is thinking VRC Derby and he does know a good horse from a bad one!!!

The winner and runner-up (Macau Causeway) were 1,2 all the way here. Third-placed CHIVANA kept coming and ran well, FURIO, ditto, with his big weight, there are plenty of wins in him and even BETTWS (fastest closing sectionals) made nice ground between runners in leader-dominated race.

Race 3 and winner SAVLATE sprinted quick and held a good margin over his rivals at the end. Runner-up BELLA PRINCESS Came home well once over heels and into the clear and the honest PURPLE CHOCOLATE made up very good ground between runners. These three dominated the sectional times battle too although a horse called OCEAN CROSSING was spotted hitting the line very nicely late after taking a while to wind up… follow in 2000m race next start.

Race 5 over the Melbourne Cup trip (3200m) was won on protest by DERRINGER over first past the post DESERT MASTER who did roll in on him, great ride on DERRINGER as he stalked the Fav all the way then snuck up inside him, then obviously spoke like O.J Simpson’s lawyers in the stewards room….

Should it have been upheld ? I don’t know, but I do strongly believe that a competitor should have to EARN it’s win, just like every other sport in the world (maybe excluding Steve Bradbury from this… lol). Stewards upholding objections all over the place because someone “doesn’t stop riding” etc etc…. it just isn’t enough evidence (in most cases) to say horse B would have beaten horse A had their been no interference. It really needs to be almost ‘conclusive’ the runner-up would have won, at least have a ‘reasonable doubt’ clause. I vividly remember as recently as ten years ago protests did really have to be obvious/conclusive and racing was better for it…  and no, I didn’t back Desert Master…

Anyway, other good runs in the A.Ramsden: PRINCE DANDE LION (made run 1000m out, very wide, strong stayer!), ISTA KAREEM (kept coming, never gave up, had fastest final 400m = ‘winner’) and ELWOOD (peeled of back on Prince Dande Lion and ran well).

Race 6 and MISS ANDRETTI was dominant and heavily backed. Simply too good here even allowing for her being in the best spot. GIBERNAU (fitter now) ran on well, especially late and RECAPITALIZE looks a coming winner on drier ground. Ran super time for 1200m on a Slow track – 1:10.38…

Race 7 and another well-backed runner THREEDEE had the perfect trail in and won well… Did like the effort of the runner-up in HILLSTON EXCHANGE who had worked to lead (3w early) and fought very hard in inferior ground. Has plenty of ability but has had some problems. Third-placed ROYAL IDA was also terrific, wide all the way, no cover with 58kg… MONO ROCK made ground late (2^nd-fastest final 400/200m behind winner). PERSONAL PEAK (back and came very wide) and EXCHEQUER (did hit the line nicely very late) were both good little runs also…

In the final event it was wide open after the barrier scratching of MATRAS and it was left to CAPTIOUS to take it out at good odds (came off 33L last when pulled up distressed/ heart murmur). They ran over 1 second slower for their 1^st-800m than the 3yos in Race 3 and the winner was a tough effort. LIFE’S A BOUNTY continues to race well, chased hard and had the best sectionals home of any runner in the event. MR BUTTKICKA led, was pressured, and held on bravely in the worst ground… fitter for this too and JACQUES LE NAIF and MORLOT NOW both ran on satisfactorily…

THE FORGIVE FILE:

TRIGONOMETRY (lame), STORMY SKIES (wide, no cover), MANEROO LUE (faced breeze a long way out), HARRYALLARDS LANE (atrial fibrillation, umm, heart thingo), MT BILLY (too close to inside!), SERENE PRINCE (ditto), RAID THE ROYALS (ditto), BEXAAR (nearly fell 200m), BUTTEN SHAW (drier, fitter), SOJUSTREMEMBERTHIS (drier please), SQUILLANI (prefer drier and away from slow lanes), SILK WIND (wide, no cover) and MISS LATAR (stayed inside rail).

In Sydney racing was at ROSEHILL on a GOOD track with the Rail True. Winners were well off the inside, and came wider as the day went on. No surprises here!

RUN OF THE DAY: Thought CAPE BRETON was clearly the best run on the programme. He won race 4 displaying a lovely ‘ping’ at the 300m putting up 3L on his rivals, the real beaut thing was, I doubt he was in the best ground (only 2 horses off the inside) and he beat some handy gallopers…very much on the up still too.

Other good runs in Race 4: IMPATIENT STAR (outside winner in the run, came outside – winner inside – and hit the line hard), NEWPORT (back, ran on, sectionals inferior to winner only) and DANAHAR (from last, stayed inside looking for runs, made vg ground)

Race 2 the F&M class 6 over 1100m saw a bit of a blanket finish. Winner RADIO SONG, ridden with cover, knuckled down well and held ROCK REVIVAL (every chance, kept coming). STRATEGIC’S JEWEL ran well (4-wide from 600m) as did FACING THE BREEZE (broke clear, paddled last 50m… fitter!). Best run in the race? Arguably RETRACT who was held-up 300m out before obtaining a narrow gap and hitting the line super… had best sectionals home. INDIVIDUAL (equal fastest final 400m) was also ok here 1^stup. They ran 1:04.47 off a 35.30 1^st-600m

REGGIE on the way to Brisbane for the cup stopped by at Rosehill and took some travelling money… Came from back, up the middle and produced a big finish… genuinely promising stayer! TAKEN AT THE FLOOD ran well (was in front a looong way out) and NO WINE NO SONG got into the clear 300m and kept coming. CASH CARTER was spotted making very nice late ground for something a touch easier (only Reggie had better splits home) and REGAL TROCHE (similar splits to Cash Carter) looks like he needs three-miles ??? They ran 2:30.12 for the 2400m here.

Race 7 over 1900m was DOUBLE D’AMOUR successful. Nice ride, sucked-up behind, got into clear and won well. DRACAAN, from last, made up tremendous ground in the straight to grab second and DE RIGUEUR, joined in 3W turning, also ran well, ran third. FOX’N ON came through a little close to the inside it seemed… and even HEAVENLY LARK hit the line (second-fastest final 400m of race behind Dracaan).

In Race 8 COUNT MILANO finally got there, had a lovely trail, had his main rivals too close to the inside rail, and held on… Ran good time (1:10.19) off a 35.56 1^st-600m split. Runner-up SPY ZAIM looked unlucky after being forced to race on inside rail and MIND THE STEP was in a similar boat (3 off inside), these two recorded a sharp final 400m split (22.60 each) which was second-fastest in the race but not as fast as ROVING OWL’s 22.47 which was the fastest of the day… He launched late down the outside… good run! CRUZADO (4^th) ran well 1-off the inside, was beaten 1.5L by SPY ZAIM and REGAL GAZE (2^ndup) came very wide, no cover and kept coming… also good…

THE FORGIVE FILE:

ROGAN’S GEM (wide, no cover), PENHURST (stayed inside), DON’T TELL TED (wide run), ONE IOTA (no luck/run entire straight until 50m – then hit line. Hmmm), FROZEN (very wide), COME IN SPANNER (poor recovery), RUSSAIN BEAU (slipped start, back and wide then forward 800m), MYSTERY CITY (poor recovery) and BUMPER SUPREME (wide trip).

TO TODAY’S SELECTIONS…

PLEASE NOTE:

All ratings for MOONEE VALLEY are for DEAD-to-SLOW Track. Rail is True. There is protected ground inside but invariably, when the rail is True at MV, you can run on…

In Sydney racing is at RANDWICK. Ratings are for DEAD Track with rail out 2M. At the last few Randwick meetings they have been swooping home out very wide (especially when give in the track).. don’t expect this to change in the space of two weeks even with 9M of ‘protected’ ground inside. Watch and monitor as always.

BET OF THE DAY:

RANDWICK – Race 4 No.2 – EMPEROR FU SAN – This son of Gilded Time measured right up at his first test in Saturday/City class last start and, in fact, he was probably the best run in the race. He was the closest to the inside rail of all runners in the finish on a day where the inside section of track was clearly inferior ground. Every winner, especially late, were sweeping home down the centre and wider… EMPEROR FU SAN was beaten less than 1L by the smart LETTER OF INTENT on that occasion and just loved the way he kept finding the line. This was only start no.5 for this 3yo and his first crack at the 1400m trip and he still has considerable upside in his racing career. Today from gate 6, at peak fitness, with top hoop A.Robinson, he is expected to get a lovely run in transit and prove very difficult to hold out at the finish. Expecting around $5 ?

BEST EACH WAY BET OF THE DAY:

MOONEE VALLEY – Race 4 No.8 – COFFEESHOPRUMOURS – Another gelding with plenty of upside. He resumes today and was quite exceptional when he resumed last campaign coming from well back (third last) and winning running away by 2.5L over 1010m. He then went on to win 3 races in succession (2 in town) and his Moonee Valley win, on affected ground, coming from well off the pace and winning quite easily, was terrific. COFFEESHOPRUMOURS will get back today but with the rail true, a genuine speed up front, and some cut out of the track he is 1 from 1 at, he will be charging home at nice each-way odds.

Bonus:

MV - Race 6 – Hcp – 1600m

.  1 7 – LA FAV – All three runs this prep have been terrific. Was spotted getting home very hard last start despite making her run a bit too close to the inside at Caulfield where the winners were not. Centashani was thrashed there and has since won. She’s peaking 4^thup and has run some very good races at the Valley. True rail suits her style, she loves give in the track (placed 13 of 21 on Dead/Slow) and is in very light after the claim… She’ll be charging home. Great Value!

1. 5 – CHARMED LADY – Comes through same race as La Fav (finished .8l behind her) and she did came from further back and tracked very wide. She was a month between runs there so even fitter into this, her fourth run back. Loves the Valley. Value runner also…
2. 2 – JACQUES LE NAIF – Rolled subsequent winner Bird Dancer 3-back before charging home off slow pace at Flem despite cutting back to inside (slower ground). Settled last after finding trouble at the start last week and came down outside rail. In on limit after the claim and is a swimmer… can win!
3. 6 – GALLANTREE – Hasn’t finished worse than third in his past 9 runs. Led on leaders track at Werribee but won well… box-seats here and just sooo honest
4. 14 – INTOXICATION – Two really good runs back this prep on Good and Dead ground (hit line hard from back) before getting onto preferred heavy track at Cranbourne and beating all-bar High Costalana (since run terrific second at Sandown). 4^thup and peaking for the 1600m trip… goes in everything.

RANDWICK - Race 6 – Class 6 Hcp – 1400m

1. 3 – LETTER OF INTENT – Monster win last time carting 58.5kg from last and rolling Commemorating and co. Previous form around The Free Stater running great races without any luck in fast times also terrific. Better things ahead for this galloper…
2. 13 – REGAL GAZE – Only 2^ndup last start when back and came very wide, kept on closing and actually ran really well. Strips much fitter now and this looks easier than the Count Milano/ Spy Zaim race…. Best value runner in race!
3. 4 – FORESTRENO – Nothing wrong with his effort here last time and he always gives his all. Anwaar form has held up and expecting Vionneto form to do same. Drawn ideally and has won at 1400m… sure to be in the finish.
4. 1 – ANWAAR – Just held off Forestreno 2-back then just couldn’t hold off Pekalan here on swoopers track last time. That was only 3^rdup so not done with yet this prep. Has the 58kg from wide gate (check pattern) but very honest… another sure to run well given even luck.
5. 2 – LE BRON – Raced outside the lead but on-pacers just weren’t winning here last start. Was well supported there and will be fitter for that his first run in five months… Senior rider goes on. Harder to run down now…

Thanks to OzRacingForm.com for providing their 'Group 3' Version of their Service to 'Merv's Aussie World of Sport'
  Tips and Analysis for each weekends Sydney and Melbourne Metropolitan races will be published here every Friday by 1700 (AEDT)

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

Racing at CAULFIELD last week was on a DEAD Track with the Rail out 10M. Interesting that ALL 8 Winners came down the centre of the track in the straight (or at least 5 horses off the inside).

RUN OF THE DAY: Going with MARJOUR here in Race 3 who sat very deep all the way, swept to the lead a long way out (before home turn) in fast-run race and was not beaten far in the end in what was very much a swoopers race… Excellent effort and he’ll be fitter for it.

The 3yo’s in Race 3 ran the fastest of the 3x1400m races on the day (1:23.95) off a solid 48.11 1^st-800m. Pressure was on the leaders early (before the turn). Winner

DR NIPANDTUCK was a top winner, carted the 58kg and won very well, could be better races in store for him… ROAD WORKER fought hard on-pace where swoopers were prominent and FLORIZEL hit the line hard, from last at 600m and recorded the best closing splits of the race. TWO OCEANS never gave up, fitter now too…

In Race 1 it was DOURO VALLEY getting the race on protest which did look fair enough too… First past the post BROM FELINITY shot clear (for the second start in a row) but ran out sharply and checked ‘Douro’… in saying that, he does need things to go his way to win. Interesting that these two gapped the rest of the field, third-placed VISION AND POWER finished hard late, he is desperate for further (was under pressure long way out), did record the fastest last 200m of the race. TRUE STEEL dropped back in distance (?) and ran a terrific race… follow him back out to a trip and HASSLE made good ground/ran good late split (2^nd fastest last 200m)

Overall time for the 1800m trip was 1:50.21 with a solid speed up front, 1^st-800m was 48.40

Race 2 over 2400m saw MR SPLINTERS return to a drier track, drop in distance and win really well… sailed up the middle off a good speed (leader Showgirl led by 8L at one stage). Runner-up PENTATHON sat on fast pace, took over turning and fought hard. Favourite SATINSPIN ran on super from a country mile back and was set a huge task… all sectionals fastest of race. FOREST PRIDE returned good late splits also (2^nd-fastest last 200m). Overall time 2:29.83

Race 4 saw KINGSTON BIRD come from well back, up the middle and she won really well. The pace was on (48.07 1^st-800m) and the first six home here were ‘swoopers’. MYALANSKY did a super job after sitting wide, no cover, all the way and LA FAV (third) hit the line best of all (fastest last 200m sectional) and was closest to the inside of those in the finish. CHARMED LADY (virtually equal final 200m split) came from last and widest and really found the post also. Time was 1:24.28 for 1400m (.34 slower than 3yo’s – race 3)

In Race 5 for the 2yo’s over 1200m GREEN BIRDIE put his disappointing third last start behind him (blinkers off/ 2yo’s can struggle at start no.2) and won easily… interesting to note, the blanket finish behind him (2^nd to 6^th) and the relative fast time run (34.97 1^st-600m - 1:10.98 overall… just .11 slower than 3yo Fillies later in the day).

CINQUE ran second and ran very well considering she stayed on inside rail (worst ground) and was giving weight to most of the boys. (fastest last 200m here)

HIAWATHA wants further again, may make nice horse and MAGIC DOT… ditto ditto

Race 6 and it was 1^stup specialist MURRAY DOWNS who led, didn’t go hard, and kept kicking to score in 1-3.84 for the 1100m. 1^st-600m was a modest 35.08.

SERENE PRINCE ran second and ran some handy sectionals (fastest last 400m of the day) to the line, STRAIGHT LEGS sat wide and just held off RAID THE ROYALS who had made very good ground in the straight off a slow pace. ROMANTIC LOVER & MARWIN GOLD returned handy late sectionals Vs tempo.

The 3yo Fillies in Race 7 over 1200m ran 1:10.87 and the winner did have to work sweeping to the lead before the turn and holding on… good win! Runner-up HANNA ROSSA charged after her but just missed and LUMINARY made up a ton of ground over on the inside (worst ground/ good effort). SOLIEL was the pick of the on-pacers running 4^th after sitting on the lead and both WILDCOAST (very honest) and BRONZETTA (penny dropped yet?) rattled home in terrific fashion.

In the last it was BIRD DANCER and he did it well after sitting deep, no cover, almost all of the way. Ran 1:24.17 for the 1400m off a 48.43 1^st-800m. RED ALI came from last and flew home (just missed! Good sectionals!), TARA’S HALLS was a tough effort (3^rd) and that was about it!?!?

THE FORGIVE FILE:

SILK WIND (used up early), LAST GOODBYE (ridden upside down), DELVECCHIO (needs mud), KINGS FAREWELL (Stayed inside), SIPWICZ (covered ground, knocked down 100m, p/up again and hit the line…), FANTINO (over-raced badly), MADAM MANGUY (stayed inside), MISS LATAR (stayed inside), ALLUNASU (never really ridden in traffic), RUBY TROIS (no room in straight), SAHIFA (very wide), DIAMOND MASQUE (new stable?), EMILYDELAGO (very wide, eased down, rider concerned with action) and WARSHAWSKY (stayed inside rail).

In Sydney racing was at RANDWICK on a SLOW track with the Rail out 11m (1600m-to-WP, 8M remainder). Winners came wider and wider and wider as the day went on, which happens at every track after so much traffic (36 races in 7 days over Easter)… especially after rain. Those inside had no hope!

Runner-up COMMEMORATING was a top effort, sat 6-deep and kept coming, third-placed EMPEROR FU SAN was also terrific after making his run closest to the inside yet just kept closing. Has his hoof on the till.

Race 1 for the 2yo’s saw TURN AND BURN prove his debut was no fluke (sat wide, kept coming there) and broke away here for a good solid win at $21… Beat a more than handy galloper too in UPPER ECHELON who never looked happy but kept on coming. It was a 4-way go for second here with BOMBER COMMAND and  DELORAINE running on nicely. Time for the 1300m was 1:19.75.

Race 3 over 2400m saw CASH CARTER run down the unlucky GRANDILOQUENT who had rolled back to the inside/quicksand costing itself a win, still, he ran him down so… Time was 2:07.68

Race 4 for the 3yoF saw A COUNTRY GIRL finally get her just desserts. Sat deep all the way here (no disadvantage but others had softer runs) and she won easily… too good! Ran fastest time of the 3x1400m races too recording 1:24.92 (1^st-800m 48.85 but there was pressure). DANOISERIE (2^nd) ran terrific, went up inside the leader (not best spot) and kept on. INVOLVE (3^rd) was held-up and went back to inside also… good effort in worst ground.

Race 5 over 1800m and the first two home thrashed the rest: GLORIOUS LADY (wide early, got in 800m, let down strongly) beat CARA Y CRUZ (led, well off inside and kicked). Ran 1:54.10 for the 1800m off a sluggish 1^st-1200m of 1:18.83… The race was on-pace dominated with BODY BEAUTIFUL holding third from ROSA’S SPUR who was probably the run of the race running on strongly from a mile back Vs pattern of the race. POWER OF LOVE also ran well Vs pattern of race and di track wide a bit soon even allowing for track bias.

By Race 6 they were getting very wide and VIONNETO used his big finish to advantage. Ran 1:11.34 for the 1200m. FORESTRENO gave his all (standard) and TACTFULLY rattled home. PRESENTLY ran well, was closest to the inside of the first-5 home. Liked PELENNIUM’s 1^st-up run also, he led, had company and was still right there at the 150m… fitter now.

In the last it was PEKALAN and her whirlwind finish almost on the outside rail. Leaders walked here (49.39 1^st-800m) and she came from a mile back after being slow out so all honours with her even allowing for the bias… ANWAR kept coming for second (honest/every chance) and DOUBLOON fought on after leading and heading to the centre of the track. OUR SORSALEDO BAY kept coming closest to inside but, doesn’t win often and GAZE ON was a ripper 1^st-up run. They ran 1:25.41 off the slow pace (1400m)…

REVERENZA (wide, forward attacking lead), LOST WEEKEND (driven mad in front), SEVEN STAR (injured), SUCH FAME (pulled up distressed/poor recovery), AMNESIA (stayed inside… well named!), PRESTO VITE (too close to inside), IMPRISONED (stayed inside), BEST ON BOARD (beaten by track), UPSIZED (didn’t go in wet) and CALIDAN (ditto).

TO TODAY’S SELECTIONS:

PLEASE NOTE:

All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for DEAD Track, Rail is out 9M. They were off the fence here last meeting with the rail out 5M, expecting run-ons to have no problems and leaning towards outside runners in Straight-races.

In Sydney racing is at ROSEHILL . Ratings are for GOOD Track, Rail True. Last few meetings here with the rail out winners have come wider and wider as the day wore on… Back to True here so there is protected ground but doubt run-ons will have any worries…

BET OF THE DAY:

FLEMINGTON – Race 8 No.7 – MATRAS – Good class mare especially with some give in the ground and she was a real ‘ready to win’ run two starts back at Randwick when spotted motoring to the line in the straight despite racing closest to the inside (worst ground) of the first-5 home there. That was only 2^ndup from a long, injury enforced spell. She then went to Adelaide 3^rdup and had no luck at all… she looked to have plenty left to give too. Back to the wide-open spaces of Flemington, peaking fitness levels, with some give in the track are all major pluses. MATRAS will have the services of top hoop Steven King from an ideal draw and in with 1.5kg over the limit, against ‘off season’ horses, she looks an outstanding win bet!

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY:

ROSEHILL – Race 5 No.5 – INNINGS – This 3yo gelding has his far share of natural ability and will be much fitter for his three runs back this preparation. Was slow out and 8L off them turning 1^stup but ran on hard before beating all-bar CALIDAN 2^ndup. Put the writing on the wall here last start when sailed home from back and wide in good race won in fast time relative to the day. INNINGS is desperate for the 1300m of today’s trip and fancy he will settle much closer off a more modest tempo. It is very much worth noting he was nosed out one day (here) by one of his main rivals THE JACKAL and he now meets him significantly better at the weights (4kg)… these two cleared out from the rest of the field that day running 1:09.39 for the 1200m. From gate 5 he should get a lovely run in transit and be very hard to beat. Has come up around $8 in some early markets and at that quote… he is great each way value.

BONUS: (Top rated runners – 2 feature races)

Race 6 – Listed – The Straight Six – 1200m

1. 5 – MISS ANDRETTI – reasons outlined
2. 1 – RECAPITALIZE – Didn’t go in the Goodwood but slow/heavy tracks aren’t his go. Rattled home 1^stup behind Was That You/ Classiconi and he just loves the straight. Drawn 7 so can get to which ever side is faster… Sure to be powering to the line if track Dead or better…
3. 7 – RAID THE ROYALS – Was motoring to the line nicely last start between runners when thwarted by slow pace up front. Finished 1.5L ahead of Miss Andretti in the Newmarket and meets her better at the weights now. Starting to worry not won for a while and gate 4 a concern. Top pick of ‘inside’ runners.
4. 3 – KORCULA – 1^stup. Has a great fresh record over sprint trips (last time 1400m/ Btn less than 1L) and did like his recent trial. Gate 18 could very well be the right draw. Good roughie.
5. 8 – STRAIGHT LEGS – Wide on the speed last time and held third (just) ahead of Raid The Royals. Meets him 3kg better now and drawn out (better?), pipped by Gunner Tom previous start in the Wangoom. Racing very well. E/way…

1. 12 – REGAL TROCHE – Top effort 2-back (3yo company) when came from last and widest and ran home very well (best closing splits there despite covering ground), form has been proven (Super Lacuna was third). Took an age to wind-up last time (hard at it 500m) but did close well late and obviously after more ground. Gets that today (out to 2400m) and may just be silly odds?
2. 7 – GRANDILOQUENT – Stiff last week when rolled back to the inside (quicksand) and grabbed late by Cash Carter. That tops him off (3^rd run back) and he will relish the 2400m… Very hard to run down here.
3. 4 – REGGIE – Dominant winner on Heavy at Flem last start (7 Lengths) and astute trainer is eyeing off a Brisbane Cup start. Nothing wrong with dry track form and is genuinely on the up. Can win!
4. 2 – NO WINE NO SONG – He is flying. Followed good Sydney Cup run (second-fastest last 200m sectional) with top win this track/trip over Swansea. Don’t knock winning form… goes in everything.
5. 10 – KAMSKY – Forgive heavy track failure last start and go on solid finishing fourth to the inform Jygah at Lakeside when slow pace up front no help. Fifth run in now and out to a trip might see sharp improvement at odds…

Good luck !

Thanks to OzRacingForm.com for providing their 'Group 3' Version of their Service to 'Merv's Aussie World of Sport'
  Tips and Analysis for each weekends Sydney and Melbourne Metropolitan races will be published here every Friday by 1700 (AEDT)

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

Racing at FLEMINGTON last Saturday was on a HEAVY track. Rail was out 5M. There were some big, big margins (margins usually exaggerated on the very wet). Winners were coming well off the inside rail and almost on outside rail in the late straight race. It was tough to lead today… Totally forgive those caught on the inside section of track.

SIR PENTIRE took off 1800m out and held on ok and DERRINGER loomed-up very wide and has upside this campaign.

Race 6 was run at, well, a walk. 54.65 1^st-800m even in quicksand is barely a jog but winner JYGAH did show tremendous fight and it was tough to sit on the pace here today so you cannot knock. Runner-up JACQUES LE NAIF rattled home from well back and went inside (?), super effort Vs this tempo in inferior ground.

Others: STEP AHEAD (every chance), ASTRODAME (1600m?), MERLOT NOW (had chance), JAGGER (made nice late ground between) and JAKODAE (also ran on very nicely). JACQUES LE NAIF “won” the sectionals award from JAGGER and JAKODAE.

In Race 7 the swimmer BEXAAR saluted after travelling nicely behind the speed, towards the outside rail. That was his first win when not 1^stup, had the run here, well handled. SENSATIONAL SWING Ran terrific closest to the inside rail. GIBERNAU (1^stup) came down outside rail and ran well and FUN AT LAST, who was cut-out over the last 100m when running on, ran another super race. Had second-fastest last 200m split and wasn’t ridden the final 100m…. hmmm. Time for 1200m 1:11.19

In the last it was UNIVERSAL HEIGHTS who sat off them with a good smother and shot away by 3L before holding off the fast-finishing EMERALD JACK who didn’t travel well when in traffic but, once clear, he launched after the leader and just missed. They beat the third horse quite comfortably, that was EMOOKI STREET who was held-up slightly, got the split and ran on for third. LIONS GATE (outside lead) was the best on-pacer, the other leader GRANDILOQUENT held on ok and will be fitter. HARRYALLARDS LANE ran on from last. This 2000m event was run in 2:08.54

THE FORGIVE FILE:

PRESENTING (not suited closest to inside and pressured), AMBOULI (too wet), THIS IS ME (tough run, too wet also), JAVERT (too close inside), MUZDAHER (too wet), MISERLY (stayed inside rail), ALIM (too wet), ZINGO (injured) and MONO ROCK (inside)…. Plus others beaten 30 or 40 lengths… filing under “too bad to be true”

In Sydney racing was at ROSEHILL on a GOOD track with the Rail out 6M. Runners/winners came wider as the day went on… no shock.

RUN OF THE DAY: Going with SILKY RED BOXER in the Listed Civic Stks (race 7) who was spotted hitting the line very nicely, late, in what was a race very much dominated by those on the speed. Leaders had a 49.15 1^st-800m (1400m trip) and kicked for home at the 600m (great ride on leader/winner Gorgonite). SILKY RED BOXER came home in 11.61 his last 200m and should be in for a good Australian campaign.

LANGBOURGHINI in the same race really motored his last 100m (Vs tempo, ready now) and FIRE AT WILL returned good late sectionals. Overall time, just… 1:23.60

Race 1 for the 2yo’s was taken out by 1^st starter INTERFERE who was heavily supported. Led in 35.66 which included a mid-race ‘steady’… other fancied runners sat off her, some quite deep so it was tailor-made for the favourite… Still she showed a big kick into the straight. THRONE INN restrained to tail, came wide and ran home well. DANLEIGH over-raced in-between runners midfield, was held-up into the straight, got clear 250m and found the line nicely. Overall time (1100m) 1:04.90

In Race 2 FRITZ’S PRINCESS was dominant. Came from back off a slo-o-w pace (36.17 1^st-600m) and won easily… Recorded the fastest sectionals of the day (600/400/200m in 33.76/ 22.25/ 11.43). Runner-up DANCESTEPS had her chance (rider reprimanded for not riding out to line). RADIO SONG had led (every chance) and SHARP AUNTY hit the line (non-winner!). These first-4 gapped the rest. Time was 1:10.80 for the 1200m.

Race 4 over the 2400m was won by NO WINE NO SONG backing-up from Sydney Cup. Was given beaut run but was a strong winner. Runner-up SWANSEA lost no admirers (was wide early and dragged winner into the race from 600m). COLMAINE came home in 12.50 his last 200m, .02 faster than the winner. Not much else to report here. Time was 2:29.76 (four seconds outside CR)

Good quality race was Race 5 and when one took off 1000m out it was on for young and old with the race set-up for the backmarkers… The 800m-to600m split in this race was 11.05 and none of the first seven home were in the first-four at the 600m mark. Winner BOBADAH produced a big finish and did record an 11.54 final 200m. Runner-up FRIDAY CREEK was best of on-pacers and ran a great race. Was left sitting shot 300m out… held second! DANAHAR rattled home from last (home 11:54 also) and has a future. IMPATIENT STAR, also from near last rattled home and was cut-out late… should’ve finished closer! CRIQUE also ran ok (wide early) got in as did ROSA’S SPUR without much room in the straight). They ran 1:29.79 here for the 1500m (class 3). Good gallop.

Race 6, also over the 1500m (Class 6) was run in 1:30.34 off a 49.34 1^st-800m (tick over 6 lengths slower early split than Race 5/ class 3). Winner AMIANAN sat on the leader and toughed it right out. He tries very hard this guy I will give him that and had been annoyed in the lead at previous start, had support here. COUNT MILANO ran on (standard) and BERBER ran a top race weaving through off a slow pace without best of luck. He was the best closer here as 1^st, 2^nd, 4^th all were right on the tempo.

BEAU COVERT made ground and would love some of Melbourne’s rain…

All honours with COLUMATE in the last, sat wide all the way, took off 350m and won very well. RUBINDA saved ground inside, weaved through and hit the line super (home 11.72) and third-placed MOSSO came from last and widest (home 11.68 – fastest of race). INNINGS looks just about ready, wants 1400m (home 11.84) and FROZEN ran his usual honest race. Their 1:10.24 was faster than the Class 6/1200m race off a 35.05 1^st-600m sectional.

THE FORGIVE FILE:

ADMIRELLE (4-wide!?!?), TOLIVA (3-wide, kept coming, ran well), LANSDOWNE HOUSE (bled), SPINNRAD (back and wide, ran on ok), NEW HAMPSHIRE (took off 1000m), WINDFIELDS FARM (stayed inside rail), DOUBLE D’AMORE (cit out when running on last 100m), ANNJOLINO (wide run), UNABATED (jockey injured!) and FLYING ALPHA (slow out, lot to learn).

TO TODAY’S SELECTIONS…

PLEASE NOTE:

All ratings for CAULFIELD are for DEAD-to-SLOW Track with the Rail out 10M. Track has been playing very well lately, still, expecting winners to come from off the inside rail as the day wears on…

In Sydney racing is at RANDWICK . Ratings are for GOOD Track, rail out 11m 1600m-to-WP (8m remainder). Swoopers dominated late at the last Randwick meeting but that was the fourth meeting there in 7 days so expecting less dramatic pattern here… in saying that, running on will not be a problem.

BET OF THE DAY:

CAULFIELD – Race 4 No.1 – LAKE CHARLOTTE – Good class mare who grows a leg when the tracks are rain-affected. Led and kicked strongly last start at Flemington but was run down by ASTRODAME, that Mare then ran very well in open handicap last week when loomed to win but just doesn’t get a strong 1600m. LAKE CHARLOTTE much prefers the Caulfield track… Go back to her previous start at this track and distance where she was cut-down in the last few bounds by STORM SIGNAL who then went to Queensland and ran a sensational race. This her track, this is her trip, these are her track conditions and this race lacks depth. She is in very well at the weights after the 3kg claim for Ben Smith (2kg over limit) and she will give a big kick turning and take some serious running down…

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY:

RANDWICK – Race 4 No.4 – A COUNTRY GIRL – She has run a terrific race at all of her starts this campaign but hasn’t quite been able to crack a win… yet. Ran home hard behind AT EASE three-back in very fast time and good form race before tackling some real smart one’s at her first try at 1400m and was beaten just .6 of a length behind PASIKATERA/ AT EASE/ DIVINE MADONNA in running fourth. She then went to the Hawkesbury Guineas but was caught wide all the way yet still had the courage to keep on closing all the way to the line, her effort to be beaten only 3L by the highly promising THE FREE STATER in very fast time (1-22.05) was outstanding.

Back to fillies grade and in fact, the easiest race she has contested for ages, drawn gate 4 so will get the gun run… very hard to beat!!!

Bonus – Top Rated runners CAULFIELD Race 7:

Race 7 – 3yoF Hcp – 1200m

1. 9 – HANNA ROSSA – Settled last at Flem on Anzac Day and the leaders went slow (36.49 1^st-600m) yet she rocketed late and rolled all bar the smart Megadeal. She can run some amazing splits. Previous run also terrific when joined in early off hot pace (34.16) and cut down late. Very, very hard to stop here!!!
2. 11 – WARSHAWSKY – Like this filly. Has gate speed, has courage and never runs a bad race. Led at a solid pace (47.65 1^st-800m) and kicked strongly here 2-back before going hard and showing great fight last start. Will go forward from gate 2 and be hard to beat.
3. 2 – WILDCOAST – 1^stup. Is 2 from 2 fresh and is another who is very honest. Had 8 runs last prep and her worst finish was third (beaten 1.7L). Awkward draw but check pattern/scratchings and Caulfield sprints have just the one turn. Claim helps.
4. 3 – SOLEIL – Rolled Warshawsky last start (had drop, still good win) and meets her better at the weights now, forget ran 2-back here. Must include!
5. 13 – OVERNIGHTSENSATION – Top effort last start over unsuitable 1000m trip when still last turning (Moonee Valley has a short straight) and really found the line. Ran clearly fastest late sectionals of the race. Desperate for 1200m, just needs touch of luck from gate 1 !?!?

Good luck !

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

Racing was at MOONEE VALLEY last Saturday on a SLOW track with a TRUE rail. Important to note that the fence really was a ‘no go’ zone as the day wore on and leaders found it extremely difficult to figure in the finish. All 8 winners came well off the inside rail in eth straight with same sitting deep all the way…If you were able to sit deep-ish with a trail, you had every chance!

RUN OF THE DAY: Going with BIRD DANCER here who seems to be back somewhere near the form that had him labelled as a very smart horse when under the care of Brian Mayfield-Smith. His effort here to make good ground on the inside rail (clearly inferior ground by race 7) was very good, still somehow managed the second-fastest final-400m of the race (behind winner) despite racing in inferior ground… always a good sign of a coming winner…

Other good efforts in Race 7: Obviously the winner JACQUES LE NAIF (came from last down the outside), third-placed QUDRAAT (led, pressured, did get off the inside but it was tough to lead today) and COOL TRENT (hit the line but rarely wins!). They ran just a fair 1^st-800m here in 50.49 (did wind up early though) and overall time for the 1500m was 1:32.61 on the Slow track.

Race 1 at MV was taken out by DR NIPANDTUCK who is just such a good little professional (and under-rated) racehorse. Came from last in slowly run 1200m race here (1^st-600m 36.99) and won easily. Really good win. Ran 1:13.07 Vs slow pace and dominated the sectional times battle too… Runner-up LONG WALK came wide, hit the lead and was then swamped, ran well and BELLA PRINCESS hit the line after being held-up until the 100m mark. TONZ MORE FUN pushed up inside coming to the turn, needed more galloping room to cut-loose but still found the line nicely.

Four Mares contested Race 2 and MISS LA TAR peeled around them and won well enough. Runner-up DORIN DONNA came from last and in traffic (4 horse race?) and did attack the line. Leader HOLIDAZZLE fought it out well on a tough day for leaders and will be fitter. They ran 1:39.38 for 15600m off a 50.82 1^st-800m.

Race 3 and MAGICAL TRICKS sat outside the leader, broke away and won well. BEJEEKERS came 4-wide passing the 1000m and ran well. SHAN DIAN stayed on inside (oops) and kept on and OVERNIGHTSENSATION, still last at 100m, really found the line… she’s desperate for further! ATTACCA found the line too.

Fastest final 400m Sectionals? OVERNIGHTSENSATION, ATTACCA, BEJEEKERS were the podium finishers. The 3yo fillies ran 1-minute.28 for the 1000m.

Race 4 for the 2yo’s over 1200m saw 1^st and 2^nd gap the rest of the field running .79 slower overall than the 3yo’s (Race 1). They were: MARITESS out 4-wide making sweeping run, hit the lead and held on from, NASHITA who came from the back, tracked into it, took a stride or two to wind up then launched late… both very good here. Fourth-placed MISS FANTABULOUS from last, to outside did find the line hard but was well held.

Race 5 and TRULY AMAZING took all the honours after sitting deep mostly and managed to break-away, nothing wrong with that win. Ran slightly faster time than the other 1600m race (Mares – race 2), just .12 faster off a much faster 1^st-800m (49.45 was 1.37 faster). Runner-up PURPLE CHOCOLATE had his chance (best final 400/200m splits here) and IZAA MONO showed good courage to hold third after working to lead, off the inside. Not much else to report here…

The 1200m open Hcp was Race 6 and SERENE PRINCE knuckled down strongly in the straight to grab APPIAN WAY (rarely wins!) who had led and held on well Vs the pattern of the day. BEXAAR hit the line (loves the wet) SHANGO’S IMAGE also found the line nicely, late. Had equal fastest final-200m with the winner… Overall time of 1:13.19 was a touch slower (.12) than DR NIPANDTUCK (3yo) in race 1 despite slightly faster 1^st-600m (.32 faster).

In the final event it was a great ride from Ben Melham that saw SATINSPIN home first. Given lovely trail wide off the speed and won well. TRUE STEEL went forward 4-wide 900m out (winner came up inside him) and did a great job to hold second. BADGER’S WOOD, CONFINES and GUNZA MIGILLA (inside rail) all hit the line…

Time for the Cox Plate trip was 2:09.81

THE FORGIVE FILE:

KATSIDIS (wide, no cover), PREDESTINED (dry please), COMES THE DAWN (ditto), GINSPIEL (injured), AGENT’S DREAM (too wet), OUR MARAUDING (Cant lead today plus, too wet), CARTES (stayed inside rail), PEACE RULER (upside down) and OUR COURT (not given any chance of running well but rarely wins).

IN SYDNEY racing was at RANDWICK for the Sydney Cup. Track was GOOD, rail was out 8M 1600m-to-WP and 5M remainder… winners were coming further and further and further away from that inside rail as the day wore on which makes sense after 36 races in 7 days!

RUN OF THE DAY: Have to go with EREMEIN. Back from 2400m to 2000m coming from well back (and hard at it) turning and just launched late… great win! The pace/pressure was on in the Gp1 QE Stks and leader’s ran a 1:14.51 1^st-1200m with CASUAL PASS and DESERT WAR serving it up to each-other and the latter taking over the lead 600m out… Runner-up AQUA D’AMORE ran a super race sitting a touch wide mostly and was only grabbed very late, by a very good one. IKE’S DREAM hit the line nicely at the end of 2000m (a distance she just barely gets – had equal final 600m as winner). Overall time was 2:02.49 (2 seconds outside long-standing CR)

Race 1 was a Welter and TALL TIMBERS won it making a 3-wide move passing the 600m, hit front a long way out but defied them… 1^st-800m sectional was solid (47.50) and overall time also, 1:35.54. SAXON came from 2-3L last, around field and ran on well (2^ndup) with leader GORGONITE fighting it out well for third. MAHTOUM hit the line late (also only 2^ndup) and recorded equal-fastest final 200m split with SAXON. PYRENNES PRINCE hit the line ok for easier.

Race 2 saw PASIKATERA lead all the way…. Went through 1^st-800m in 47.39 and held off two, arguably, unlucky runners in AT EASE (held up a touch on inside rail at vital stage, charged late) and DIVINE MADONNA (back on inside rail, came over heels and flew late)… Second and Third place-getters here had fastest and second-fastest final 400m sectionals of the day (22.35 and 22.54). Three high-class fillies here! A COUNTRY GIRL ran well with this weight-scale against…

Overall time was good. 1:22.42 and this form will hold up.

Race 3 and it was DREAM MACHINE who came from back, between runners, and burst through hitting the line hard. Ran 2:04.31 for his 2000m trip off a 1:15.83 1^st-1200m. BORN TO RULE ran on well after sitting 3-wide with trail. REGAL TROUCHE also ran on well coming from last and widest, had virtually equal final 400/200m spits as the winner and is on the up…

Race 4 and PARATROOPERS deserved his win. Leaders went hard here and pace/pressure came on well before the 600m pole when DANCE HERO poured it on. NICONERO stalked winner all the way and ran a super race (every chance) with SHANIA DANE her typically super-honest self finishing third after a mini-drama at the start… They ran sizzling time here of 1:21.54 off a sub-47 1^st-800m.

MENTALITY led all the way in the Champagne Stks and he didn’t walk in front so the effort was very good. Had previously given Sires winner EXCITES a touch-up and the money did come for him… Ran good time 1:35.09 and held off Slipper winner MISS FINLAND who peeled 5-deep into the straight and ran home hard (had quickest final 400m here). DE LAGO MIST did a good job (wide early, forward to outside lead) and EMPIRES CHOICE couldn’t sprint, but did hit the line nicely late (had fastest final 200m split here)… promising…

The Sydney Cup was Race 7 and old COUNTY TYRONE won his second race on a GOOD track (from 40) but how could you knock him? What a great horse he has been to connections and remember last year he was luckless in a heap of big races. His last three Syd cup attempts included two seconds and a fourth. Runner-up ZABEAT did a super-job after being wide early then sent forward to lead… leaders certainly weren’t winning now…very tough effort! THREE CHIMNEYS ran well (every chance) and COLMAINE was good this grade (hit line hard out wide)… Interesting that (again!) the Melbourne Cup runners couldn’t re-produce their efforts from that first Tuesday in November, might be a bit in that? (i.e. long spring, short break, long autumn).

The pace came on from inside the 1200m this year and overall time was 3:22.69 (3.69 o/s CR) off a 1:16.28 1^st-1200m.

Race 8 and it was FANTASIA coming out 4-wide before the turn then getting clear and holding on, top ride for the pattern/track. She ran super-time (1:34.52 – clearly fastest of 3 x 1600m races) and held off OCTAPUSSY who came from 2L last and rattled home… just missed. VILLA BLED returned to form and STAR SHIRAZ peeled off back’s turning and ran home hard with her big weight. Didn’t mind the run of MATRAS here 2^ndup off a long break (kept coming – was closest to the inside of first-5 home) and she’ll be fitter… (Octapussy, no surprise, held the sectionals title here from Star Shiraz and the winner…)

In the final event it was PICKET FENCE breaking through for win no.3 from 24…and just!!! Great ride (typical Beadman) peeling off backs into the straight and he pipped KING REX who gave a great sight leading, running along, being pressured before the turn on a swoopers track and being beaten a lip… terrific effort, best run in race!

COOL FRONT wasn’t far behind that honour after being slow out and flying home 1^stup… ran super! VIONNETO and FOR VALOUR ran home well (good sectionals) and WITH A CHANCE (ok very late) and UBER (home well to the line) also did enough. Time was 1:09.32 here.

THE FORGIVE FILE:

READYFORCATHERINE (wide, no cover the trip), MAJORCA (wide, forward 1000m, no hope), MANTON (galloped on… but he is not tough!), NEWPORT (upside down), REGAL CHEER (missed kick 6L), THE ONE (back then widest, went ok), FOORAM (didn’t stay), LACHLAN RIVER (over-raced badly, spell time!) and FLASH PHANTOM (6-wide no cover… still hit the line here… good little run for something easier).

TO TODAY’S SELECTIONS:

PLEASE NOTE:

All ratings for CAULFIELD are for GOOD track, Rail is out 6M. Track looked ok here on Easter Monday with the Rail out 3M, they have done a good job with the ‘new’ track, cannot see any problems with running-on, off the inside rail late in the day after a fair bit of traffic over the last few weeks.

In Sydney racing is at HAWKESBURY, ratings are for GOOD track with the Rail True. Good track Hawkesbury, not expecting any bias but on-pacers are rarely disadvantaged there.

BET OF THE DAY:

CAULFIELD – Race 8 No.14 – MONTECHORO – This highly-promising son of Encosta De Lago was a terrific winner last start sweeping home and recording an 11.37 final-200m which was one of the fastest of the day! He had subsequent city winner VALKYRIE DIVA inside him and beat her comfortably in addition to running straight past MESSAGE BANK who had been competitive with FALKIRK up the straight. His previous outing he was beaten 1L by AMAZING ONE and SERENE PRINCE (latter since won) despite getting back along the inside and making up a ton of ground despite having nowhere near enough galloping room and not being seriously ridden (always a great sign). Expecting him to relish the tempo of the 1400m here at Caulfield and suspect gate 10 will be ideal by the final event sitting just off the speed with a trail. Around $4 in early markets will do…

BEST EACH WAY BET OF THE DAY:

HAWKESBURY – Race 7 No.4 – GOLD RANSOM – Talented Daughter of the very smart filly SHIZU who hasn’t had any luck her entire campaign to date. Had nowhere to go in the home straight last time when should have beaten a horse called DREAM MACHINE who then came out and won a Gp3 race (set weights) at Randwick last week. Her previous run she made a 4-wide run well before the home turn and was beaten a tick over 1L over 1400m. Her 1600m record is excellent having won 2 and run 1 second from 4 attempts at 1600m and she was immediately spelled after her one ‘miss’. She has had one run here at Hawkesbury for one strong win and has drawn beautifully in gate 3, just needs a touch of luck in the straight to be right in the finish here!

Free bonus:

Top Rated Runners:

Race 5 – Hcp – 1800m

1. 2 – PURE SILNCE – reasons outlined
2. 3 – HASSLE – Keeps running well. Stayed on inside rail last time here and managed second-fastest final 200m split (behind winner Casual Pass). Wasn’t far off Activation there and got very close to that galloper at previous outing also. We Can’t Say That has emerged from the race to win easily. 1800m form is terrific!
3. 10 – VISION AND POWER – Formguide says 10^th of 12 at MV two-back but the run was good making up ground without getting a crack at them, Found the line nicely at Bendigo 3^rdup with 58kg. Desperate for the 1800m and the weight relief. Last 1800m run was 3^rd to Headturner at Flem. Value runner here.
4. 8 – KENDALAY – Gifted galloper but often feels his legs. Top second to Valkyrie Diva at Lakeside making up a stack of ground. Fitter now 3^rdup and has run some terrific races here at Caulfield (including ripper from last off slow pace in Coongy Hcp). Small field suits and has no weight… good roughie.
5. 6 – BLUE COLLAR JACK – Beat a handy horse last time (Lattanzi) this track/trip and was strong at the end despite coming 4-wide very early, swamped late by New Kid In Town (promising) before that off slid pace. Chance.

Race 6 – Rowley Mile – 1600m

1. 3 – LANTWIN – Outstanding effort last start when worked hard to lead and led clearly on a solid speed (47.35 1^st-800m) before going down less than 1L behind Orpington/ Triple Dee. Previous run when slipped away 700m out and beat all-bar the very smart Malcolm (beat home Utzon/ Bentley Biscuit and easily!) is just great form… 1^st try at 1600m is only (tiny) query.
2. 6 – DIAMOND SUN – Was a real ‘ready to win’ run last start when rocketing to the line to finish .6L behind Lantwin at just his second run back from a freshen, he is the one proven at 1600m (in quin 9 of 15) and has won here. Quoted big odds in some early publications ($21) and if that is offered he must be backed!
3. 1 – SPIRIT OF TARA – Quality galloper but only has a short, sharp sprint (hence 3 wins and one rubbish protest from 31 starts). Is being betaen 2-3 lengtsh by the best gallopers in Sydney of late and Doncaster run was a monster after covering ground. We saw Niconero endure a very similar Doncaster run and nearly roll Paratroopers last week… e/way.
4. 7 – CINCINNATI GAL – Forgive both runs back this prep. missed kick badly 1^stup (still worked home well) before back and very wide last time. 3^rdup now and like her at 1600m. Only 5L off them in an Epsom one day at 1600m. Has won here, good roughie.
5. 8 – UNDER COMMAND – Smart galloper putting it all together now. Good win last time sitting a touch wide and proving too strong, needs to come up another notch here but has upside…

Good Luck !!!

Results - Sydney Cup Day 2006

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

Racing at Caulfield last week was on a DEAD Track with the Rail True. There did not appear to be any bias (same Monday too) which is great, hats off to those involved.

Of the others: EMERALD JACK (sat deep, no cover all the way and fought it out but he can let you down) and both HASSLE and UNIVERSAL HEIGHTS hit the line nicely off slow early speed. They had 2^nd and 3^rd fastest final 200m split (respectively) behind the winner.

Race 1 was won by LECTRICE on her best behaviour, she sat on leader, FEEDBACK, and was too strong (1^st-600m 34.79). These two ran the quinella and interesting to note behind them, from 3^rd to 7^th was a blanket finish. Time was good 1:10.82.

THE ITALIAN hit the line nicely after being held up a touch 200m out, looks a future stayer, had fastest final 600/400/200m splits here. DELEDIO, didn’t out-run Chris Judd like his namesake, but kept closing well with his 58kg and was in a 5-way go for third (had second-fastest late sections).

Race 2 saw GOING SPENDING get up in the last stride after tracking up 3-wide with trail. Runner-up KING’S FAREWELL was a touch slow out but had every chance. Was brave. MARJOUR from 2L last really found the line well, good effort 1^stup and ON THE LOOSE ran on ok outside 2^ndup.

Time for the 1000m was 58.13 (only .06 slower than Open sprint despite much slower early split) off a 34.51 1^st-600m. Winner home in 11.79 his last 200m (3^rd fastest of day) with MARJOUR home 11.87.

STEP AHEAD returned to the winner’s list in Race 3 and he ran the fastest last 200m split of the day (11.65) at the end of 1600m. He has been running super-sectionals all prep but just hasn’t been able to win (I must admit, I gave him “life” a few starts back)… got there today. Both he and runner-up LIFE’S A BOUNTY deserve credit, they ran on well off a slow early speed (1^st-800m 50.54) with leader HIDDEN STRINGS stacking them up mid-race. She held on for third and probably prefers it a touch drier.

PURE SILENCE made up very nice late ground from last (home 11.73 last 200m), his run was an eye-catcher. Overall time 1:37.52 here.

Race 4, a staying test for the 3yo’s (2400m) was taken out by DOLPHIN JO and all honours with him. Was 4-wide early then in to 3-wide then sent forward 1400m out to sit on the leader so he worked for 1000m. As stated, all honours. MR BIGALOW hit the line hard after being held-up 300m mark. MELANIA made wide run before the turn but had every chance, ran ok and EMPIRE GOLD was spotted hitting the line nicely late. YOUWIN had handy (very) late sectionals.

The 3yo’s ran 2:32.52 for the 2400m. The pace was slow early (1^st-1200m 1:17.65) but one did take off 1000m out putting same pressure on and a few wound-up from about the 600m…

Race 5 was the 1000m open sprint and they went very hard early… Leaders recorded a 33.92 1^st-600m… ok, that is over half-a-second faster than the Gp1 Lightning Stks back in Feb., Race was very much set-up for the closers and WAS THAT YOU did a good job coming deep with no cart-in. Held off CLASSICONI (just! Great effort 60kg) and the fast-finishing RECAPITALIZE with the latter recording the fastest final 400m split of the day (22.82), good effort off hot pace even if it was 1000m race. STRAIGHT LEGS kept coming to the line well and was the best of the on-pacers. RA SUN also hit the line. There was 3 Lengths 1^st to 9^Th here, that is what you call a blanket finish and time of 58.07 was understandably quick.

Race 7 and STORM SIGNAL, ridden colder, got the splits and ran down LAKE CHARLOTTE who had given a big kick despite running a solid 1^st-800m (47.80) and having her saddle slip 1000m out. Both super efforts! MEDIUM SWING put the writing on the wall with a top 2^ndup run here with big weight, she came wide turning too. MISS LATAR battled on well (no match) and PINSEMTOIT ? Well, she was in a little traffic into straight but was just ok over the last 300m to be honest.

Mares here ran faster time than the other 1400m event with a 1:24.02 recorded. Winner clearly recorded the best late sectionals with MEDIUM SWING and MISS LATAR 2^nd and 3^rd respectively.

In the final event (1400m 1mw ly) it was left to MONO ROCK to run-down stablemate QUDRAAT (slow out, forward to sit on slow pace) and these two got right away from third-placed TENESSEE TOM (did a good job, best closer Vs slow pace)… leaders got away with a 49.12 1^st-800m so they had their chance.

PEACE RULER (standard) and LE BUCHERON (1^stup) hit the line with the slow pace no help to them. Overall time 1:24.50

THE FORGIVE FILE:

SENORITA DE LAGO (Wide run, no cover), INFINITE GRACE (back and 3 & 4 wide), ELTONJON (wide), KING JOHANNES (didn’t get much room in straight), AGITATION (wide), OUR HEIGHTS (over-raced terribly), APPIAN WAY (too much pressure but… doesn’t win often), ULUSSES (spell time), UMBER (injured), LADY LYN (very wide), KING’S ARCH (back and 3-wide, forward 800m)

In Sydney, racing was at RANDWICK for AJC Derby Day on a GOOD track with no bias. Times weren’t flash on the day here… Fantastic days racing!!!

RUN OF THE DAY: Have to go with the obvious in HEADTURNER, he came right away from his rivals in the Derby and was a mile too good, simple! The pace came on from the 1000m in the Derby and 1^st-1200m of 1:15.22 was relatively quick for the day (.41 faster than fillies/2000m event). Runner-up DE BEERS was given a great ride and had every chance, ran very well, TESTAFIABLE did a great job, wide early, forward to sit on lead, out again 3-deep before the 600m, tough!

They ran 2:29.92 (I note over 1 second slower than Wednesday’s Oaks) but as stated, all times on Derby Day were ‘relatively’ slow.

Back to race 1 (1600m for 2yo’s) and it was GALLANT TESS coming from back, peeling wide and proving too strong. ANAMATO and THESEO certainly had their chance, fourth-placed TOTTLER (who looked outstanding in the yard) found the line really well this grade without threatening the winner. Had final sectionals inferior only to said winner.  The babies ran 1:37.16 for the 1600m off a 49.00 1^st-800m

Race 2 (3yoF, 2000m) and OPERETTA LASS was very impressive. Didn’t have a soft run by any stretch as was wide and sent forward mid-race, got in, came wide again before the home turn and won easily. ALBERGHETTI hit the line hard, late, out wide, final sectionals inferior only to the winner’s. Didn’t mind the run of PEARLADANE who lost her spot 200m, was held-up, and ran home stylishly once clear.

The fillies ran a 2:03.97 for the 2000m trip off a 1:15.63 1^st-1200m.

They didn’t go hard in Race 3 (49.60 1^st-800m) over the 1600m which made the win of BELMONTE quite meritorious. Came from well back and unleashed a strong finish. Second and third place-getters were right on the pace: PRINCE ARTHUR (led, was backed 70’s to 30’s and kept kicking hard) and ZENARTA (filly, not suited at weights, had every chance though and fitter). Did like the effort of NEWPORT making very nice ground between runners and was held-up over last 40m, should have finished closer… Time was 1:37.17 virtually identical to that of the babies in race 1 over same trip…

Race 4 saw RED OOG return to form and blow most punters away. Stable said addition of blinkers did the trick (can we get them on our filly then?) but that was sharp improvement… Very courageous effort from horse and rider in the straight obtaining needle-eye opening. GLAMOUR PUSS went down swinging, and very narrowly…

They didn’t go hard at all for a Gp1 sprint here (1^st-600m 35.34) and overall was just 1:09.72.

The Sires (Race 5) was full of drama (and hard-luck stories). There was major interference at the 700m when RUBRIC was checked and nearly went through the fence. Leaders ran a 48.36 1^st-800m in this and the overall was 1:23.96 but the result was in three runners untouched by the drama that unfolded. Winner EXCITES got the runs/splits and to his credit ran on hard (have to feel for the connections of MENATLITY who thrashed him last time, met him better at the weights but was poleaxed in the run). Runner-up DOWN THE WICKET sat outside lead and fought hard and MY MIDDI kept coming. Fourth-placed DE LAGO MIST was a top effort, she was on heels 700m/checked and had no serious galloping room the entire straight. Best run in race for mine. LUVULEO hit the line, was outside the winer in the run and PLAYGROUND EXPRESS (home well) was ok for easier.

Race 7 was the Chairman’s Hcp and they looked to be running along in solid fashion up front, times (again) don’t really agree with a 1:18.76 1^st-1200m but there was no doubting the dominance of FOORAM’s win coming from last, great trail in, great ride…  such a strong win. THREE CHIMNEYS sat second, took over turning and beat all others, DIZELLE was spotted rattling home late from back, then widest, she really needs leaders winding up early doesn’t she!?!? She had virtually equal last 400m as the winner but her last 200m was much faster (11.69 compared to 12.03 – that is a big gap for a final 200m split!). DIAMOND JAKE certainly did enough but this grade seems a little hot ditto for COLMAINE. Overall time 2:45.06 was 4.26 secs outside the record.

Race 8 was run at a very solid clip, LANTWIN (ran terrific!) worked to lead in 47.35 1^st-800m and fought on like a tiger. Winner ORPINGTON sat off him, came to the centre of the track, shot away and held on (just!) from TRIPLE DEE who charged at him. DIAMOND SUN from well back really hit the line, also very good, had best closing sectionals here and an 11.68 final 200m off a fast pace is good going. PENTELIKON made wide run before the turn around TRIPLE DEE and loomed, ran well again. Time of 1:23-flat was good relative to the day.

An amazing effort from COOLROOM CANDIDATE in the last, 3-wide the trip, sprinted quick and was a mile too good (how ??? Mares hey? Can’t live with them… pass the salt…) anyway, she won like a $1.50 pop from IMANA who tracked the winner, she is flying. SHALIMAR SKY (1^stup) really found the line after being held-up passing the 300m. RADIO SONG led at own pace (1^st-600m 35.83) and held fourth and what of the run of UNABATED. Checked at the start, last, got runs and attacked the line with gusto, she recorded the fastest final 200m of the day (11.47) and her final 600m split of 33.88 was bettered only by RED OOG, and by 3x100ths of a second. That’s a black-booker! IMANA and SHALIMAR SKY shared honours for second-fastest splits home. Overall time 1:10.61 here.

THE FORGIVE FILE:

CATCHWORD (wide the trip), PAULINI (poor recovery), DANE TRISTALIGHT (too bad to be true), COMMEMORATING (didn’t get a serious crack at them in straight), FRIDAY CREEK (poor recovery, wide run), SPARK OF LIFE (injured), MENTALITY (wide, over-raced, pushed 10-deep at 700m when interference happened), CHURCHILL DOWNS (over-raced badly, spell-time), JUST MAMBO (pushed very wide), CASINO PRINCE (please spell), RUBRIC (aforementioned, interestingly he had the fastest final 200m of the race so didn’t lay done… hmmm), SPINNEY (slow out, ran on, held last bit), GOLDTOWN (may lose the chance at Father’s Day), ON A JEUNE (wide, forward from 1200m… good thinking!), KISS MY FUJI (wide), TACTFULLY (not ton of room), RETAIL THERAPY (injured) and CINCINNATI GAL (4 and 5 wide).

PLEASE NOTE:

All ratings for MOONE VALLEY are for DEAD-SLOW track, rail is True. More rain is forecast…, when the rail is True running-on is generally not a problem.

In Sydney racing is at Randwick for the fourth time in 7 days. Ratings for GOOD Track. Rail goes out 8M 1600m-to-WP and 5M remainder. Interesting to note the winners late in the day on Wednesday (Oaks Day) came well off the inside rail and were able to cover ground, expecting run-ons to have no problems at all and be advantaged late… Watch and Monitor as always…

BET OF THE DAY:

RANDWICK – Race 4 No.4 – PARATROOPERS – Form-lines do not come much better than the one this guy boasts at present. Run-down in the last stride last start by RACING TO WIN who subsequently won the Gp1 Doncaster Hcp and has emerged as an outright star!!! PARATROOPERS is every bit as good as him and, if anything, will be even better suited coming back in distance from 1500m to 1400m. The leaders did go hard last start (47.29 1^st-800m) and was left a sitting shot for the horse tagging him all the way. They ran super time (1:27.89, just .61 outside track-record). Previous run when exploded away from rivals on Dead track was awesome. His last Randwick run he gave PRIMUS and Co. a touch-up. Beadman rides. Looks just about unbeatable!!!

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY:

MOONEE VALLEY – Race 8 No.4 – TRUE STEEL – Former Perth Gp1 winner who ran a terrific race at his Melbourne debut when held-up before the home turn before getting clear and rocketing to the line recording some of the fastest late splits of the day. That was his first run for a month too so he’ll be even fitter coming into this assignment and he’ll relish the step out to 2040m. Form from the race looks ok with INFINITE GRACE running very well last week (no luck, wide run) and suspect drawing gate 10 will be ideal. The sting out of the ground will not bother him, track reports from Cranbourne say he is flying and quite simply, he is proven in classes above this level.  Great each-way bet.

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY:

RANDWICK – Race 9 No.6 – VIONNETO – Really liked his 2^ndup run at Rosehill when back and wide on a day nothing was really swooping yet he kept closing very nicely despite being pushed off the track rounding the turn. He covered a stack of extra ground there was only 3L off them at the finish. The effort was even more meritorious when you consider he is not known for his 2^ndup heroics. His 1^stup run was a ripper and he should have won clearly after being held-up until race was over before flashing late… He has had a little freshen (do like him off little freshen’s), in fact, his latest prep he had a freshen before his 3^rdup run when demolished a handy field of sprinters, at this track, over 1000m running 56.99. He is 2 from 3 here at Randwick with the “miss” being over 1400m, in a Gp3 race won by SHANIA DANE, and he was only 4L off her at the finish (after over-racing badly). Drawn out but doubt that will be a drama come race 36 over 7 days and the speed on up front will suit. Hoping for the $7 quoted around the traps early… Great value at that!!!

BEST PLACE BET OF THE DAY:

RANDWICK – Race 5 No.3 – MENTALITY – Was a devastating winner of the Listed Baillieu Hcp at Warwick Farm 2-back where he gave subsequent Gp1 Sires winner EXCITES quite a thrashing. He then went into said Sires, met Excites much better at the weights for thrashing him but was caught very wide, then over-raced, then was sent some 10-deep around the 700m mark when all that interference occurred. He still managed the fourth-fastest final 400m split of the race there which is testament to the horse’s courage. Drawn in this time (gate 1) for Beadman and races like the 1600m will be ideal. Just needs to relax, and hope MISS FINLAND’s set-back slows her up… Think he will run very well here at e/way (1 x 3) odds…

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY

RANDWICK – Race 7 No.2 – ON A JEUNE – Gp1 Melbourne Cup place-getter in the Spring when rattled home from ‘hopeless’ position turning. Put the writing on the wall this prep three starts back when hit the line very sweetly at the end of 2000m behind EREMEIN at WFA when he actually recorded the second-fastest final 200m of the race and after crossing the line was (still) making tremendous ground on the A-grade WFA gallopers. Forgive his next run in the Gp1 BMW (WFA) when tracked wide in fast-run race and wasn’t punished. WAS punished last start though when Hugh Bowman decided making a forward move just inside the 1200m mark was a good idea and he covered ground, faced the breeze and gave a great cart-in to FOORAM who subsequently ran straight passed him (surprise!). Great staying rider K.McEvoy takes the reigns today so expect a much quieter ride and, umm, there are no MAKYBE DIVA’s in this Sydney Cup! Suspect he’ll be around $15 or better here and at that quote, he is terrific value!

TOP RATED RUNNERS:

MOONEE VALLEY

Race 1 – 3yo Hcp – 1200m

1. 3 – MILLIE ROSE – Was back and wide with no trail last time in what has proven to be a very hot form race (Storm Signal/ Lake Charlotte) and she just kept closing all the way in what was a great run. Beaten by Recline prior (beat home Lucky Diva) in fast time. Back to 3yo company but up against the boys. Top-rated!
2. 1 – TONZ MORE FUN – Hit the lead out wide last time but was grabbed late by the impressive Shadoways who has since run super (beaten by handicapper), they ran very fast time for that event and that followed a 5.5L 6^TH to Magically who was the best on-pacer in very fast-run Galaxy on Wednesday. Definite claims
3. 5 – DR NIPANDTUCK – Good little galloper (under-rated) resuming. Did like his 1^stup effort last prep when charged after Tereschenko despite hitting the running rail turning before a couple of luckless runs. Well weighted. He’ll run well.
4. 8 – KING CHARLES – Made his run inside Tonz More Fun (behind Shadoways) last start and was less than 1L off him at the end. That was first run for 6-weeks so he’ll be fitter and drawn beautifully in gate 3. Doubt he wants any more rain!
5. 10 – SIPOWICZ – Also comes through the Shadoways race and did like him hitting the line late after being held-up. That was only 1^stup so much fitter into this and had form around some handy horses last prep. Has handled Dead ground. Value.

Race 2 – Mares Hcp – 1600m

1. 4 – MISS LA TAR – Honest effort last week when kept closing well behind good horses Storm Signal/ Lake Charlotte, that was only 2^ndup so expecting a fitter Mare to be presented 3^rdup and she has won up to 1800m. Has handled Dead tracks and very well weighted here.
2. 5 – PETITE LILLE – In here with 50kg after the claim and she hit the line nicely 1^stup behind Lucky Diva, Storm Signal and Lake Charlotte so form ties in here. Didn’t get much room 2^ndup and even fitter now, is proven wet and has won twice at 1600m. Can win.
3. 1 – HIDDEN STRINGS – Her best form is down in the weights on dry ground. She might not get either here. If it stays just Dead she is the class but still riskable with 56.5kg (after claim).
4. 2- HOLIDAZZLE – Fitter for 2 runs back, did win 3^rdup last prep but would like to see more before parting with my “hard earned”.

Race 3 – 3yoF Hcp – 1000m

1. 2 – JESTAWINNA – Led in 34.4 (1^st-600m) 1^stup over unsuitable 1100m and held on ok. Connections decided to ride from behind last start here when back to 1000m and it seemed an error. She has settled in the first-three in 7 of her 8 ‘quinella’ runs. That’s the key and wet wont worry. Hoping for more positive ride here and 3kg claim helps.
2. 6 – SHAN DIAN – 1^stup. Is 2 from 2 fresh including narrow (but very courageous) win over Jester Smoothie this track/trip last campaign when taken on everywhere. Gate 1 so committed to going forward, query Rory’s Jester if rack wet though?
3. 4 – BEJEEKERS – 1^stup. Very competitive with this grade in first campaign and looked a type with upside. Won a trial nicely recently and claim for in-form Ben Melham sees her in very light. Unproven wet but by Toy Pindari (?)… Big danger!
4. 5 – PREDESTINED – Beat Bejeekers at Hillside over 1000m last prep but suspect the other filly may have the greater scope? Must forgive last run when led in 34.1 where first-eight home were all swoopers (ex- Amarazetti) She doesn’t want any more rain though.
5. 3 – JESTAJEWEL – Totally forget 1^stup run bombed the start. Has the scalp of Evilweb (great run it) this track/trip and in very light after claim. Has been placed on Slow (.4L 3^rd to Red Hot Mama at Flem/1000m). Value.

Race 4 – 2yoF Hcp – 1200m

1. 3 – NASHITA – Came from last, got to outside and charged home on debut behind Senorita De Lago (since run well, wide no cover last Sat.). Sectionals were smart and hoping she can settle closer here given that experience. Claim for in-form Melham a plus. Promising!
2. 2 – MARITESS – Comes through same race as Nashita and she ran on well there (Nashita ran passed her in straight and meets her 1kg better). Peak fitness now and ability to settle closer an advantage. e/way.
3. 6 – MISS FANTABULOUS – Slowly away last time at Hillside but did run on well. That was only second start and 1000m. 1200m suits better and sectionals were virtually identical to Aprisa there and she did run well on Monday at Caulfield (1L second). On the up… value.
4. 4 – COMES THE DAWN – Hayes trained filly who stuck on well over 1000m on debut in Adelaide. Stable know how to place them and 1200m looks very likely to suit much better.
5. 5 – SAHIFA – Filly from O’Brien camp who has two seconds at Bendigo to her name. Beaten by Sun Glazed 1^stup and that horse since run good 2L second to Industrious… Box seats here.

Race 5 – 3yo Hcp – 1600m

1. 2 – PURPLE CHOCOLATE – Had every chance for mine last time but was only 2.4L off Fullazz and co there in what was a good race. Just no match for Jygah at previous run but gave him 5kg and he has since won impressively at Sandown coming from off a slow pace. 3kg claim sees him in light. Blinkers off, winkers on…Safe e/way I fancy?
2. 7 – JUNGLE GOSSIP – Beat all-bar the impressive Hachiman last time and did beat the rest clearly enough. Peak fitness now and looks to be improving all the time. Has handled rain-affected ground, just might be good value here.
3. 6 – GINSPIEL - Won first two in the bush this prep before coming to town, stepping out to 1300m and really hitting the line hard behind Readforcatherine last start at Hillside (Anais was second, since won). Looked like 1600m would suit and she stepped out to that trip and won well last time. Against the boys here but she is flying and is on the up…
4. 11 – TRULY AMAZING – Run was very similar to that of Jungle Gossip last start (behind Hachiman) and meets him some 2kg better here. That was only start no.2 so has plenty of upside… good chance!
5. 3 – OUR MARAUDING – 3^rdup now, out to 1600m (scene of last win, on Dead track) and should go forward this time.. and improve. Value at double-figures.

Race 6 – Hcp – 1200m

1. 14 – MONTECHORO – Swept home with the look of a very goods horse at Lakeside easily accounting for Valkyrie Diva (since won well) and Message Bank (competitive with Falkirk previously). Previous run was a ripper closing strongly with out much room/luck behind Amazing One (here)… clear top pick.
2. 9 – RUBITON RAIDER – Had every chance behind Tantat Secret last time but did run very well (.5L away) and winner has since run super again in good race. The race was set-up for the closers and he was the best on-pacer there. Super-honest, safe e/way bet here from ideal draw.
3. 2 – SERENE PRINCE – Beat Montechoro home 2-back sitting o/s leader in moderately run race (meets him 1.5kg worse here) but was only 2^ndup. Back to MV/1200m 3^rdup and beat all-bar Threedee after working on solid speed. Step Ahead was in his wake there, nice quinella these three.
4. 3 – KING ROBDON – 1^stup. Only battled ok 1^stup last prep but won previous fresh campaign (easily, by 2L), proven here and on rain-affected ground and stable are firing… value/check betting.
5. 13 – CHAR – Has had no luck last two and was in the market last start when very wide all the way behind subsequent Group winner Coolroom Candidate. Last time he had luck he was close-up third to Avenue Google this course/distance off almost identical (4-week) break. Blowout?

Race 7 - 1mw ly Hcp – 1500m

1. 15 – DRAC’S BACK – Very promising galloper who was terrific winning at Hamilton flashing late off slow pace. Broke course record at only third race start at Arrarat winning by almost 10Lengths… just needs a scratching to sneak in.
2. 8 – KING’S ARCH – Did a good job last week when back and wide and made forward run 800m out. Stuck on well. Was month between runs there too so fitter. Very competitive this grade previous run in Echuca Cup (1L 4^th making strong ground inside) and likes the cut in the track. Good roughie here.
3. 1 – ELBRUS – Won Echuca Cup then only 3L off the very smart Rubijon in Wangaratta Cup. In very nicely after claim for Beriman and is 1 from 1 at the Valley. Gate 2 ideal…
4. 11 – QUDRAAT – Bit slow out then forward to sit on moderate speed last Saturday and fought it out well. May get soft lead here and is 1 from 1 on Slow ground, has more upside than most rivals here too… no worries quick back-up
5. 3 – COOL TRENT – Is going great guns this prep but does struggle to win. Motored to the line behind Infinite Grace last start and not overly concerned with wide gate… place bets for mine.
6. 6 – SPECIAL VOYAGE – Kept coming well behind Amazing One 2-back (beaten less than 1L) then got up on inside rail (best going?) last time when held by Infinite Grace and Co. Peaking now after three runs and wet no worries. Gate 10 ideal I’d say… chance.

Race 8 – Hcp – 2040m

1. 4 – TRUE STEEL – reasons outlined
2. 13 – SATINSPIN – Good sneaky little run 2-back when back and covered plenty of ground yet still got home well behind New Kid In Town (since very good/No luck) before latest second in Hamilton Cup when closed strongly in straight. Looks back in town and likes cut in track. Chance at the value.
3. 5 – HOFMEISTER – Found the line ok with plenty against at both runs this prep, gets to the trip he wants, does have plenty of ability but query winning strike-rate!?!?!
4. 3 – CLASSIC BENBARA – In very nicely at the weights here, form around Juggle The Books/ Mr Splinters is excellent and Yarra Glen Cup run better than it looks on paper. Loves wet and loves the Valley. Not too worried wide draw (check pattern)
5. 2 – PINERATE – Coming into the form that saw him win a good race on Oaks Day at Flem (1600m, beat Mock). Competitive with Rubijon 2-back then should have finished closer behind Douro Valley last start. Hs won at 1800m and only Valley run was over 1200m so…

RANDWICK

Race 1 – Welter Hcp – 1600m

1. 4 – SAXON – Liked his 1^stup run in what is already shaping as hot form race (Swick/ Triple Dee) run in fast time. He was working home strongly when rider had to stop riding 100m out. Has won 2^ndup at 1600m (2 preps back – Beat Hit The Road) and latest 2^ndup run was a ‘forgive run’. Small field. May just be the value here?
2. 5 – FIGHTING FUND – Good win 2-back before handy 3L 6^Th last start behind Gorgonite in what was very much leader-dominated race. Form has been franked (Orpington) and meets winner 4.5kg better here. Only run this distance range was a ‘must forgive’ over 1550 when never got a crack at them. Good chance.
3. 3 – GORGONITE – Led and didn’t walk (1^st-800m 47.56) last start easily holding subsequent winner Orpington. Bit harder at this weight scale but has Beadman and may be able to control the race. Wary skinny odds though…
4. 1 – MAHTOUM – Comes through same race (Gorgonite/ Fighting Fund) and meets them better at weights. That was 1^stup over 1400m and his 2^ndup record is actually pretty good (1.2L off Nevis in Gp2 race 2^ndup last prep – won previous 2^ndup at 1500m). Hmmm…

Race 2 – Listed - J.Carr Stks – 3yoF SWP – 1400m

1. 2 – DIVINE MADONNA – Morphettville run 3-back was freakish then slow out Vs slow pace and made up a heap of ground behind Al Samer/ Falaise/ Rewaaya (super sectionals). Ridden closer with weight scale against in Gp1 Queen Of The Turf and held her ground. 1400m, this grade with pace in the race… all the ticks!!!
2. 7 – AT EASE – I will put it simply, every time this filly has any luck, she runs terrific. Wide all the way 3-back behind Regal Cheer yet still got home well before big win in fast time over smart one (A Country Girl). No luck at all last start entire straight. Back out to 1400m ideal and drawn perfectly. It would be load-up time if not for the presence of Divine Madonna… Box quin/tri including A Country Girl.
3. 8 – A COUNTRY GIRL – Stiff not to beat subsequent Listed Stks winner Belmonte 2-back when just did too much work early. Flashed late behind At Ease but now meets her 2.5kg worse? Out to 1400m will suit and bet she goes forward this time. Great race!
4. 5 – READYFORCATHERINE – Gutsy effort last time with 58.5kg going down narrowly. Meets At Ease 3.5kg better for that so you can sure make a case… Failed only 1400m attempt but was wide all the way there. Including…
5. 1 – PASIKATERA – Didn’t get the 2000m trip. Back to 1400m suits and only 4L off Serenade Rose 3-back…

Race 3 – Gp3 – Frank Packer Plate – 3yo SW – 2000m

1. 5 – NEWPORT – Really nice effort last start behind Belmonte when came from last (slowly run race) through on inside and was charging until help-up hopelessly over final 50m. Previous run also very good coming from back and wide (had trail). Racing like 2000m will suit and has plenty of upside…
2. 2 – IMPATIENT STAR – Liked his effort in the Tulloch when ran off the track turning (losing lengths) and kept coming. Was only 2L off Manton at the finish and expecting him to have derived the most benefit from the outing. Previous form including barnstorming finish at Canberra on leaders track is first-rate. Nice gate here.
3. 1 – MANTON – Back to form out to this trip last time when given typical Beadman perla (tracked favourite until home straight). Randwick form a little suspect but has had excuses… The obvious pick at level weights but looking for some value.
4. 8 – THE JONKER – Finished 2.3L off Impatient Star at Canberra when couldn’t make much ground on leader’s track after coming wide turning. Wide again in Rosehill Guineas then not far away behind Magic Instinct on Monday… prefer place.
5. 3 – MAJORCA – You could argue he was on the worst part of the track last start when making ground over on inside rail. Finished alongside Newport there at third run back. 2000m will suit but query has to be… just the one win!?!?

Race 4 – Gp1 All Aged Stks – WFA – 1400m

1. 4 – PARATROOPERS – reasons outlined
2. 1 – NICONERO – Typically courageous effort in the Doncaster when trapped wide, then sent forward mid-race in fast-run event… Only beaten 2.5L there. The last time he back-up within a week he ran close-up fourth in Gp1 Toorak Hcp after sitting 3-wide all the way. Still beat Shania Dane home that day too…
3. 6 – SHANIA DANE – Another typically gutsy third to Mnemosyne and co in the Queen Of The Turf after sitting 3-deep all the way. Her 1400m form is outstanding including 2 wins from 2 attempts this track/trip. Meets Niconero 3.5kg better for Toorak clash (and she is better suited 1400m). Sooo honest!
4. 8 – REGAL CHEER – Burst through 200m in Queen Of The Turf and love the fight she showed once headed, she is top-shelf and is 3 from 4 at 1400m with her miss being a 3L fifth when poleaxed in the run… Tough to match motors with Paratroopers but can if rain has come…

Race 5 – Gp1 Champagne Stks – 2yo SW – 1600m

1. 7 – MISS FINLAND – Awesome in slipper before missing a run in the Sires with (small) cut. Has since worked in outstanding fashion on the track giving every indication she is 100%. Touch of luck from 10 needed but pattern may well suit her sitting a touch deep by now? Clearly the one to beat!
2. 3 – MENTALITY – reasons outlined
3. 8 – DE LAGO MIST – Just about best run in the Sires when hampered severely at 700m and just kept closing in despite not really being able to be ridden (was strung up in traffic). Won VRC Sires before that and was going away from them on the line… definite danger!
4. 2 – EMPIRES CHOICE – Really found the line late in the Slipper (had second-fastest final 200m split) and is obviously looking for more ground. Has to make up nearly 6L on the winner but he hasn’t had a set-back and is certain to run a strong 1600m… you could make a case…
5. 10 – GALLANT TESS – Out to 1600m and showed her true colours last week rolling a couple of very handy 2yo’s (Anamato/ Theseo) who had been competitive with these… Had been running super races at 1200m forever covering ground…The one proven at 1600m.

Race 6 – Gp1 – Queen Elizabeth Stks – WFA – 2000m

1. 6 – CASUAL PASS – Been in great form all prep (bar one ordinary effort when coming off infection). Back to his brilliant best last week and his best has included close-up placings behind Makybe Diva and Elvstroem. Just has to cope with ‘Sydney’ way (has had leg problems) to be a great chance again…
2. 1 – EREMEIN – The obvious after two big Gp1 WFA wins. Drops back to 2000m here and has been having real tough runs and will be short…
3. 7 – AQUA D’AMORE – Tick over 4L off Eremein last start when loomed to place 200m out but died on run. Much better suited at 2000m and her previous effort in the Gp1 Coolmore when missed the start and rattled home on leader’s track was excellent. She can win this!!!
4. 9 – DE BEERS – Wasn’t convinced he’d stay but he sure did (in 3yo grade) and ran a great race in the Derby. Quick back-up against the older horses is a query… might risk him winning, place for mine.
5. 3 – DESERT WAR – 1L off Eremein in the Ranvet this trip. 2.2L off Lad Of The Manor at Flem this trip in Spring. He is very honest but he only just barely gets 2000m for mine. Liked his Doncaster run (1600m with big weight) and he is flying… risk winning, place for mine.

Race 7 – Gp1 Sydney Cup – 3200m

1. 2 – ON A JEUNE – reasons outlined
2. 3 – LACHLAN RIVER – Must forgive last run when attacked the leader mid-race and made a couple of runs. Previous run when stuck on very well behind Eremein and Co in Gp1 Ranvet (only 3.1L off them) is great form for this. As is 2.3L fifth to Makybe Diva in the Melbourne Cup! Danger with softer run in transit
3. 5 – DEMERGER – Too good at Flem (2500m) then back to 2400m of the BMW when sat 4^th and carted field up to leader’s and did a great job to keep on coming… late sectionals were good there indicating she is crying out for the longer trip. Won Adelaide Cup by almost 7L and wasn’t that far off (7.8L) in last year’s Melb Cup.
4. 12 – MOLOTOV – Motored late behind Men At Work over 2000m indicating he was right up to this grade and that he’d relish a longer trip. The 3200m is an unknown but he looks like he’ll cope… goes in.
5. 6 – FOORAM – Two big wins in a row and came from last here last Saturday winning easily in the end. Deserves favouritism but still has to get the 3200m. Nice gate and champion jockey does help. Well handicapped!
6. 4 – COUNTY TYRONE – Grand old stayer who comes right into this if the rain has come… place chance only on genuine dry.

Race 8 – Gp2 – Emancipation Stks F&M – SW – 1600m

1. 8 – OCTAPUSSY – Was 1^stup for 12 months when came from back, then widest to win easily on a day not many were swooping… It was some win and the form through Mindreader has stood up. She did win 2^ndup (in New Zealand) two preps ago off similar break so can’t knock on that score.
2. 13 – LA REDOUTE – Really liked her run here 2-back when made up a stack of ground without being seriously ridden (in traffic), she then went down in grade and out to 1400m and charged at the line late when again not in ton of room. Looks like 1600m will suit. Good value runner here!
3. 2 – MATRAS – Did enough at first run for almost 6 months when held ground in what has leader dominated race run in fast time. She is unbeaten 2^ndup and at 1600m. Sure to run well.
4. 3 – CINQUE CENTO – Totally unsuited at first two runs back this prep over sprint trips. Out to 1600m here in a race lacking a little depth will see her hit back hard. Is loaded with ability. Won her latest 1600m attempt… will be charging home!
5. 1 – STAR SHIRAZ – Close up her last two in Gp1 company is great form for this. Latest effort when not given enough galloping room, but kept closing was good and may have troubled Regal Cheer before that had she run straight!?!? 58kg is the query but has all the right form.

Race 9 – Welter Hcp – 1200m

1. 6 – VIONNETO – reasons outlined
2. 4 – FOR VALOUR – Good effort last time when hit the lead early in the straight off fast pace and was left sitting shot. Form from that race looks very strong already (Swick/ Triple Dee/ Diamond Son). Hasn’t had much luck this campaign but he is suited ridden off the pace with speed on, that’s when he charges home… gate 13 not a concern by race 9 I fancy… can win.
3. 2 – COOL FRONT – 1^stup. Resumed last campaign with 2.2L third to Radetzky March when hitting the line well with 58kg. Previous fresh run he was 3.4L off Dance Hero/ Snippetson/ Spark Of Life. In very light after claim and drawn ideally… big danger!
4. 10 – PICKET FENCE – Does struggle to win but form around Bentley Biscuit and Falaise lately speaks for itself. All three runs this track have been super… each way claims.
5. 8 – KING REX – Only 4L off Snippetson 2^ndup after enduring very wide run. 1^stup run was ok (every chance) 3L off Mustard and that form has stood up. Has terrific 1200m credentials and may get out to silly odds here.

Good Luck !

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Tips and Analysis for each weekends Sydney and Melbourne Metropolitan races will be published here every Friday by 1700 (AEDT)

SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:

Racing at MOONEE VALLEY last week was on a DEAD track with the Rail True. There was no bias evident.

RUN OF THE DAY:

Going with high-class mare INFINITE GRACE who won well despite sitting wide all the way. She held a good margin on her rivals at the finish (from 2^nd to 7^th you could have thrown a beach-towel over them) and she ran good time (1:32.78) on a Dead rated track.

Pace was solid early in this event and that certainly helped COOL TRENT motor to the line. Similarly, TRUE STEEL found the line terrific after being held-up before the turn… nice effort! All others looked to have every chance but as stated, they were not far away from the second-placed horse at the end.

Race 2 for the 2yo’s saw INDUSTRIOUS lead all the way, ran a 35.15 1^st-600m (1000m trip) and did have company up there so the win was good. Ran 59.26 (Dead track). SUN GLAZED ran second (every chance) and FERGAL third (6L off them and niggled at, did hit the line nicely, obviously further now..)

Race 3 for the Mares and WINGS ON FIRE’s win was meritorious as she joined in 4-wide well before the home turn. Others had their chance. Runner-up SWINGING BABE took a sit today, got to the outside and ran on strongly and may well have scored had the track been a genuine dry!?!? JOY OF FLIGHT looked certain for victory after travelling up strongly turning but was swamped. Interesting that their 1^st-800m split here was 1.19 seconds faster (quite a solid 49.65) than the other 2040m race (Deregulate led that 3yo field) and overall time was 1.52 seconds faster.

The other 2040m race was Race 6 and VICTORY SWEEP sat on the speed, broke clear and held on. Pace looked ok but 50.86 1^st-800m isn’t fast and it was on-pace dominated. IRAZU sucked-up inside and hit the line and DEREGULATE led, held third. TWELVE OAKS ran well considering he had no trail into the race and LAGO BUOY’s late sectionals were ok.

Races 4 and 5 were the 3000m marathon events and they went quicker in the first division (still wasn’t ‘quick’) and ran faster overall time with winner SIR PENTIRE receiving a lovely smother/run. Runner-up INTRIGUING had a good suck-run but was just outstayed. Third-placed HONG KONG CHERI was a massive effort, wide all the way over 3000m, came 5-deep turning yet still hit the line and wasn’t beaten far. Clearly best run in race.

The second-division was very much on-pace dominated with a very slow 1^st-2000m split. In fact, first four home were 1,2,3,4 at the 1000m… Winner MYPOLLONGA did win well, DA CAPO may have been undone by MANZEAL’s mid-race move to sit off the rail a 3/4L in front but did think MANZEAL’s effort was good as he covered ground and made an early run. SISSANO, the hurdler, had every chance and ran fourth.

Race 8 for the 3yoF saw GINSPIEL move into the race 3-out well before the turn and hold off the fast-finishing STARSPECT. Leaders had a 62.69 1^st-1000m and overall time wasn’t flash here for the 1600m (1:39.93) but this race did have some depth to it… Fourth-placed LET’S HAVE LUNCH really found the line in the straight, her and STARSPECT had virtually identical final 400/200m splits home and they were the fastest of the race. Also liked the effort of THIS IS ME who was held-up and shuffled back before hitting the line sweetly. Last 200m sectional bettered only by the two above-mentioned fillies.

In the final event THREEDEE resumed for new stable (O’Brien) and he charged at the line to score impressively… paid very well and won like a $3 pop. He can get the best out of them Danny can’t he!!! SERENE PRINCE led 1 off the inside rail and held second, ran a 35.00 1^st-600m here. Third-placed MERLOT NOW really found the line (closing sectionals inferior only to winner) also. Overall time 1:11.35 isn’t sloppy.

THE FORGIVE FILE:

MY CUPPATEA (wide on speed), ALIM (buck-jumped), HOLY BOUNTY (Bled), CLASSIC PINK (injured), KNOPFLER (made long, wide run), RED FOR LOU (came very wide bit soon, ran well), BEACH BELL (wide), MESSAGE BANK (never really in best spot, not suited) and SMART AND MIGHTY (very wide).

Racing in Sydney was at ROSEHILL and Golden Slipper Day was held on a GOOD track with the Rail out 4M. Horses were able to run on down the outside, run on up the inside or lead and win… what a great track this is!

RUN OF THE DAY:

Photo finish between LAD OF THE MANOR and JOHAN’S TOY… when it’s close, do prefer to steer away from the obvious so the nod goes to JOHAN’S TOY. She was held-up hopelessly on inside rail and stopped cold 200m out losing all momentum. How she was able to pick-up 100m off the line and motor is almost beyond comprehension… if she has even luck (or any!?!?) in the Doncaster, she’ll go mighty close!!!

The race was the Gp1 Queen Of The Turf Stks (WFA) and pace was ok. A 48.03 1^st-800m gives the back-markers their chance if good enough and MNEMOSYNE certainly was… travelled wide (with trail) and was so strong to the line. Runner-up REGAL CHEER burst through and love the way she fought when headed with the relative weights against her today. Top class! SHANIA DANE was mostly 3-wide throughout and was courageous and both REWAAYA (ridden back, found the line) and START SHIRAZ (inside the winner 600m, held-up 250m, home well) ran well. Think PENTELIKON is very much ‘ready to win’ in the right grade.

Overall time here was 1:28.21. Just .32 slower than the George Ryder field over same trip (1500m) despite .84 slower 1^st-800m

LAD OF THE MANOR’s effort in the Gp1 George Ryder (race 6) was quite sensational. He was off a set-back, he was last and hard at it 700m out yet really found the line between runners. His last 200m split of 11.85 was clearly the fastest of the race… he got very close to them late… what a racehorse!!!

Winner RACING TO WIN (home 11.97) did a great job giving PARATROOPERS a start and running him down. Pace was right on here with a 47.29 1^st-800m recorded. Runner-up PARATROOPERS did break clear and look the winner, gunned down late. PATEZZA did enough but GOD’S OWN, umm, didn’t (was found to have elevated temperature post-race)

Overall time a slick 1:27.89 – just .68 outside long-standing course-record.

Back to Race 1 and MEN AT WORK was quite dominant over the 2000m trip. Really strong win back on top of the ground and away from WFA company. Runner-up MOLOTOV ran on very strongly late. The efforts of 1,2 here was most impressive when you consider the leaders got away with a 1:16.37 1^st-1200m, some 1.43 seconds slower (around 8 lengths) than 3yo race won by MANTON. (overall time slower too: 2:02.51)

MEN AT WORK and MOLOTOV had some of the fastest closing sectionals of the day (winner: 33.76/ 22.52/ 11.59. Runner-up: 33.87/ 22.40/ 11.53).

SQUARE ONE was wide early and did a good job to hold fourth. AL’S FLYER and CASH CARTER closed ok for easier (Al’s Flyer home 22.78 and ‘Cash’ home 23.10)

Speaking of SERENADE ROSE she was dominant (Race 4 – Gp1 Arrowfield Stks 3yo fillies). Pace was very solid when one (China Jade) attacked lead after sitting wide, the fillies ran a 1:13.08 1^st-1200m so they would have led the Colts by around 9-10 lengths after going 1200m on relative times. Winner had a good run and came right away… as stated, dominant!!! Runner-up BEAUTY WATCH did a super job, came from last and did make wide run from 800m or so joining in rounding the turn, beat all the other fillies and did not have a ‘cushy’ run at all. FLORA DANICA (still a maiden) found the line as always (actually recorded fastest last 200m of the race, .04 faster than Serenade Rose) and definitely wants the 2400m trip. EMPRESS LILY had her chance, may go for something a shade easier now. FALSETTO was held-up at the top of the straight, cut-back to inside and found the line (3^rd fastest last 200m of race) and her effort was also good.

Overall time was 2:01.30 – just .31 outside Octagonal’s course-record – very good gallop!!!

The pace and pressure was right on in the Gp1 BMW… OUR SMOKING JOE led, was taken on a couple of times and ran a 1:26.77 1^st-1400m (very solid), his effort to shoot away at the top of the straight was nothing short of excellent… held third too. Winner EREMEIN was a terrific winner though, he is now 2 from 2 at 2400m (other win being AJC Derby) and had the measure of the Caulfield Cup winner RAILINGS (again) who had peeled off his back… still, RAILINGS’ run was top-notch.

DIZELLE made nice ground (had fastest closing sectionals of the race) from near last at the 600m pole. AQUA D’AMORE ran on but was being held her last 100m. Did like the run of DEMERGER who had sat up fourth some 8L away and had to do the chasing, she did a great job to keep sticking on (actually had 4^th-fastest last 200m split) and she’s right in the Sydney Cup picture I fancy…

Overall time for the 2400m trip was 2:27.00 flat which was 1.22 secs outside course-record.

The Golden Slipper was Race 7 and MISS FINLAND was dominant in the end… big winner despite most recognising this as the most even slipper in years. All honours!

Leaders ran 34.70 their 1^st-600m but did get away with a breather mid-race (800m-to-600m-to-400m was 11.27 and 11.37)… it didn’t stop the closers from dominating the race. Runner-up PURE ENERGY got runs through and really found the line (had fastest last 400m of race 22.98), third-placed CHURCHILL DOWNS ran on strongly and BOOM TIME SAVINGS (4^TH) was the best of the on-pacers.

Others: EMPIRES CHOICE (back, to outside, ran on very well, second-fastest last 200m of race, desperate for 1400m), UNIVERSAL QUEEN (near last still 300m, rattled home, had fastest last 200m of the race), JUST MAMBO (saved ground inside, ran on), KAPHERO (led, still there 100m, tired last 40m) and GOLD EDITION (wide on speed, still there 150m, ran bravely) were all noteworthy.

They ran 1:09.52 for this year’s slipper.

In the last it was the on-pacers who dominated despite a solid 1^st-800m split of 47.56 (1400m race). GORGONITE led all the way and there was plenty of merit in the win… MINDREADER (every chance) fought hard all the way and LEGENDARY MAN (2^ndup only) kept coming to the line and wasn’t punished late, there may well be a good race in him!

Others: CELLAR EDITION (ran on… fastest last 400m here), MAHTOUM (did enough, 1400m), TERRACE (last, secs ok) and KAMMOORA (mile back, secs ok) all were ok, but never in the race!

Time was 1:22.88 – pretty sharp.

FAMOUS DANE (made long, wide run), KING REX (wide run), INFLATION (wide, forward on pace, did way too much work), LENO (bled), IMPATIENT STAR (ran off track turning, stuck on!), HAVANA HEIGHTS (always wide), CHINA JADE (too much early work), LACHLAN RIVER (poor tactics), ON A JEUNE (faced breeze mostly), ROMAN ARCH (injured), FLYING PEGASUS (wide all the way), CASINO PRINCE (slow out, no dash today, long prep!?!?), ONE TIME (wide on speed), WONDEFUL WORLD (very wide, had set-back, not right), BALLET SOCIETY (never out and galloped on), BHANDARA (4-wide run), ORPINGTON (slow out, forward to sit on lead, stuck on in leader-dominated race), MATRAS (pulled up with thumps and a cough), SPORTSMAN (wide at tail – no hope) and PRIME CENTURY (4-deep, no cover).

TO TODAY’S SELECTIONS…

PLEASE NOTE:

All Ratings for CAULFIELD are for DEAD Track with the Rail True. Rain is forecast, whatever that means. Last time here (1^st April) they were avoiding the inside rail as the day wore on when rail was out 8M. I’d expect off rail, running on to be no probs again as the day goes on… especially if the rain has come.

In Sydney it’s AJC Derby Day at RANDWICK and ratings are for GOOD Track with the Rail True. Last meeting here the rail was out 9M and they were avoiding the inside pretty quickly and they were getting wider and wider. Rail was 3M the meeting before that with no bias evident.

RANDWICK – Race 8 No.11 – TRIPLE DEE – Thought his 1^stup run was terrific after being caught wide all the way, facing the breeze (and there was a stiff breeze there)  but defied the tough trip by closing well. Had trialled very well prior to that. This guy absolutely flies 2^ndup. At his latest 2^ndup outing he sat on a fast speed and beat all-bar MALCOLM this track/trip and they broke 1:22.00 for the 1400m there. Won his previous 2^ndup outing he easily defeated LANTWIN and OUR APACHE and the prep before that he won by 3 Lengths at Newcastle. TRIPLE DEE returns to his favourite track (only failure here was Gp1 Villiers when over the top) as his record of 2 wins, 1 second to Malcolm for 4 runs shows and he has a significant jockey change to gun hoop Darren Beadman from the ideal alley of 6. It is very much worth noting Beadman has ridden TRIPLE DEE just 3 times for 2 wins. Will be very backable too! Keen!

BEST EACH WAY BET OF THE DAY:

CAULFIELD – Race 7 No.2 – LAKE CHARLOTTE – Do like this mare and really liked her 1^stup run when asked to carry 58kg and was moving into the race very nicely when one came up outside her pushing her back into traffic. She will be much fitter for that (had decent spell, has had her problems) and she flies 2^ndup. In fact, she has won her last two races when racing 2^ndup the latter over this track/trip when led, went hard, and was a mile too good. She will relish any predicted rain that has come and gets in very light after the 3kg claim for Nikita Beriman. She is in with 53.5kg here and meets STORM SIGNAL from their last-start clash some 3.5kg better. Expecting her to go forward here and with the added fitness and relative weights in her favour, she’ll prove very hard to beat. Bet increases the more rain we get, won’t come up skinny either…

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY:

CAULFIELD – Race 5 No.8 – WAS THAT YOU – Beaten for the first time in his short career last start at Morphettville but was only 2.9L off them at the finish and they ran sizzling time for the 1100m recording a 1:2.58. That was only 2^ndup after a year off so expecting him to have derived great benefit from the outing too. 1^stup win was good over quality galloper in FINAL EXPRESS (since run well) over the 1000m trip. Returns to 1000m here third-up and stable thought enough of him to enter for the Gp1 Galaxy in Sydney! Can see him getting the perfect run from gate 8 just off a hot speed and proving hard to beat. Well weighted here, handles wet or dry and just may sneak out to some odds with a few resuming at the top of the weights. Would think $5 or better would do…

BEST PLACE BET OF THE DAY:

CAULFIELD – Race 6 No.2 – CASUAL PASS – Showed he was back in town in a big way last start when charged at the line despite lumping 61kg. His final 200m sectional there was bettered only by Hassle and he comes into this race significantly better off than all of his rivals from that event. For instance, he meets favourite ACTIVATION some 4.5kg better here and suspect that run topped him off after his setback (had infection). Gp1 CF Orr Stks run was “run of the day” before his setback when wide, losing ground yet rattling home late. Love him (finally) out to 2000m, love him at this weight scale and top hoop Noel Callow returns to partner him and these two have a great rapport. In fact, Noel Callow is 4 wins from 5 rides on CASUAL PASS with the loss being a narrow second to OUR SMOKING JOE… Never believed jockeys make the horse but that record is too good to ignore! Handles wet or dry, will race on the pace and give his all… Great chance and will be “overs” here! ($9 early – sportsbet).

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY:

RANDWICK – Race 7 No.7 – VITESSE DANE – On face value she has appeared a little disappointing this campaign but just believe she has been crying out for a trip. Finally out to the marathon here (2600m) and late sectionals at her every start this prep (often off  a very slow tempo) have always been among the fastest. Included in that was her last start 6^Th to Sydney Cup hopeful KOSI BAY when she came from a long last and rattled late down the outside. Time, relative to Gp1 Rosehill Guineas (3yo/2000m) was quite good and has drawn ideally in gate 1 for in-form Jim Cassidy. Suspect she will not have to get a ‘mile’ back from that gate over this trip and remember her last two runs at this distance range were a big win in the Qld Oaks and a great third (to Lachlan River) in the Qld Derby coming from last… In with no weight here and looks a good value bet.

TOP RATED RUNNERS:

CAULFIELD:

Race 1 - 2yo Hcp – 1200m