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by Mervyn E. Skilton
Aussie Punter's Paradise provides the best tips for punters, and the best tip for horse racing punters is the weekly in-depth analysis & tips of Melbourne & Sydney Horse Racing provided by OzRacingForm.com
Oz Racing Form will make your Horse Racing experience a more pleasurable and lucrative experience. The team of professional punters at Oz Racing Form offer their horse selection tips and reasoning, by studying race replays of every runner, in every race, in Metropolitan Melbourne and Sydney. This combined with in-depth analysis of sectional times from all races means OzRacingForm can come up a range of selections and ratings so that you can reap the rewards.
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THiS WEEKS MAiL ~ FRiDAY 3RD SEPTEMBER 2010
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SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:
Racing was at CAULFIELD last week on a SLOW track. Winners were nowhere near the inside rail, especially as the day wore on.
Run Of The Day:
MOUDRE was in a different class to those he was up against, he went early with no trail, and quickly put them away... On to the group races now !
...In that race DIGGERESANDDEALERS led/was no match but fought hard to keep 2nd from APPREHEND who was sound but had every chance. TRIUMPHANT CHOICE was under pressure a way out and kept closing, fitter now, he had 3rd-fastest last 400m of the race. MUIR was home ok (sectionals slightly faster than Triumphant Choice the last 200m). KERDEM was ok late (2nd-fastest last 400/200m) from too far back. They ran 1:46.02 for 1700m on the slow.
The feature was the G2 Memsie Stks and SO YOU THINK sat 2nd, went by star mare TYPHOON TRACY and held off WHOBEGOTYOU who had the suck run but winner kept going! There looks significant improvement in the winner still, and I am certain he is lengths better on drier. SHOOT OUT raced wide (out 4-wide 800m) yet charged late, he was arguably the run of the race (and day... again !! His 11.56 last 200m was the fastest of the day) but did have match fitness on the other three... They beat 5th easily (ZABRASIVE - did enough), those back in the field had little hope off a 52-second 1st-800m (that's slow for a maiden so it's very slow for a G2 race!!). BRIGHTNIGHT had sound late sectionals. Overall time 1:26.68.
In Race 5 RIGHTFULLY YOURS maintained the excellent fresh record holding off the flying veteran STANZOUT. RETURNTOSENDER worked home soundly. ELECTROMOTIVE hit the line nicely and had fastest last 400/200m of the race (11.88 last 200m was one of the fastest of the day). Always improves 2nd-up too. HEADWAY was disappointing and may be retired. Time: 1-5.42 off a 36.09 1st-600m.
Top win from SISTINE ANGEL at big odds in Race 4... She was the only horse to storm home in the first four races and one of only six horses to break 12-seconds for the last 200m. SERVANT covered ground and was collared on the wire, good run. INTENCION kept closing. YOSEI was lovely 1st-up, she was baulked slightly 200m out and ran 12.01 that last 200m when fully clear. SHAMROCKER and WILLOW CREEK did enough. Time 1:13.44 off a sluggish 37.6 1st-600m.
The Forgive File:
DO RA MI (baulked three times/ ran well), TERPSICHORE (wide too soon/ ran on in on-pace race), ZANTELAGH (came wide/ ran on!), JOLIE BRISE (in worst going), CAT'S PYJAMAS (too wet), BREITLING (tardy/ worst ground), LIVEANDLETDIE (too wet), SARGE IN CHARGE (bled), HERE DE ANGLES (that wasn't him !!) and PACINO (need drier/ fitter).
In Sydney racing was at ROSEHILL and the track was GOOD. There was no obvious bias. Winners sat handy or swept down middle, great racing.
Run Of The Day:
Plenty of contenders but leaning to ILOVETHISCITY who should have won the Golden Rose, he only got out 150m from home then flew at the wire...
...There were four excellent runs in the race: TOORAK TOFF (2nd-up 1100-to-1400m interstate and covered ground), SQUAMOSA (worked/led in a sizzling 46.3 1st-800m yet kicked clear anyway! Amazing/Excellent run), ILOVETHISCITY (as mentioned) and SASA (worked early sitting on hot tempo/ came again late when seemingly beaten).
...There were two very good runs in the race: KUDAKULARI (going nowhere mile back turn/ flashed late in 11.57 last 200m - fastest of the race) and TOP DROP (wide/ no cover/ kept coming!). They ran a slick 1.21.9 off that breakneck early split.
Race 7 was the Sheraco Stks and MORE JOYOUS carted 59kg and ran over them all in a brilliant return (she went just like her trial) and like the fact she looks a stronger filly/mare now. GIRL HUSSLER was every chance but made the fave work to win it. SISTER MADLY covered ground/was bumped turning and ran very, very well for 3rd. DORF COMMAND hit the line in 11.19 last 200m which was a figure bettered only by the winner's 11.11. HIDE 'N' DASH had sound late splits too. They ran 1-3.25 off a 29.61 1st-500m.
Race 5 was an on-pace race but SNOW ALERT did work hard the first 500m so all honours with him back onto dry. SCOUTING WIDE was game in defeat and may be better let stride? ABITOFADO was honest. GERGIS was good on the line in on-pace race. SHERPA TENZING was wide too soon/kept coming/liked the run! GOD'S HAND was, well God's Hand... Time: 1-48.38 for 1800m.
REWARD FOR EFFORT is very good, he has a serious turn of speed and was only 2nd-up off a long break, the leaders ran 1-2 (WINTER KING 2nd) after leading in 29.9 1st-500m. TRUSTING came from last and reeled off 11.14 his last 200m which was a fraction slower than More Joyous but still exceptional. MCCLINTOCK came wide and stuck to the task well. They ran 1-3.38 for 1100m.
The Forgive File:
GRAGER (back/wide/sound), LACADA SIREN (slaughtered/ came again late! Watch), OUR CANNAVARO (took off early), TRIM (held-up key stage), THE EMBASSY (hampered 125m/ fitter), INDIKATOR (should have finished closer), MASQUERADER (chequered run), PRAECIDO (slow out/ found trouble), CHANCE BYE (in trouble early) and CONFESSIONAL (bled).
To today's selections...
PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for DEAD/SLOW track. Rail is True. With the jar out of the track I would expect them to use all of the track in the straight. Straight races? Not sure but fancy off the inside rail (middle-to-outside) may be the go...?
In Sydney racing is at RANDWICK. Ratings for for DEAD track. Rail is 8m 1000m-to-WP. The track has had a tough winter with some very heavy tracks. Doubt winners will be right out wide as that ground looked pretty chopped up recently... Must watch and monitor early races.
BET OF THE DAY (Melbourne)
FLEMINGTON - Race 5 No.6 - RESPONSE - Ran a terrific race 1st-up when forced to slower inside lanes (drew 1) and held off all-bar Rhythm In Paris whom she now meets 2.5kg better. 2nd-up last prep she ran 2nd to Faint Perfume in a G2 Kewney this track/trip.
BET OF THE DAY (Sydney)
RANDWICK - Race 1 No.6 - LOST FOR WORDS - All honours to her last time, she sat back, took off 1000m out (wide) and was there to be beaten but was too strong, she was 1800-to-2400m that day, she is a Zabeel so doubt her best is behind her and the handicapper has not got her yet.
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